Afghanistan's Neighbors Strive for Stability, Not Another Civil War

Afghanistan's Neighbors Aim to Prevent Civil War

Ahmad Massoud, the leader of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, has recently declared his intention to defeat the Taliban, regardless of the odds. However, for Massoud to pose a military threat to the Taliban, he would require the cooperation of Central Asian republics, Iran, or Pakistan among others. Afghanistan's neighbors, however, are not interested in another civil war in the country. The violence and refugees that would result from such a conflict could spill over their borders and cause economic dislocation and unrest, reaching as far as Europe.

Regional Desire for Stability

After two decades of U.S.-sponsored turmoil in the Hindu Kush, the region is eager to recover the missed opportunities of the "lost decades" from 2001 to 2021. While none of Afghanistan's neighbors prefer the Taliban to any other group and object to the regime's unrepresentative government and policies toward women, their leaders must address today's problems despite their distaste for the Taliban's retrograde ways.

Regional Relations with the Taliban

The approach of the republics to Kabul has long been one of "neighbors forever". In December 2023, Kazakhstan removed the Taliban from its terrorist list. Uzbekistan has never declared the Taliban an extremist group and in 2018, it publicly encouraged the Taliban to start negotiations with the Islamic Republic. Turkmenistan, maintaining its policy of permanent neutrality, has remained silent on the topic of the Taliban. In September 2024, the chief of Tajikistan’s security service visited Kabul for talks that were described as “productive,” and the same month the Kyrgyz Republic removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations.

Collaboration on Trade and Infrastructure

Afghanistan and its Central Asian neighbors are working together to facilitate trade and transport, renovate Afghanistan’s roads and railroads, help Afghanistan improve irrigation projects, ship natural gas from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, build a railroad from Uzbekistan to Pakistan’s seaports, and construct a multi-modal transport corridor from Kazakhstan to Pakistan, terminating in the United Arab Emirates.

Water Management Issues

Economic growth is dependent on an adequate supply of water. Afghanistan’s Hindu Kush mountains form the headwaters of the region’s basins. In March 2022, the Taliban launched construction of the Qosh Tepa canal, which will divert a significant amount of water annually from the Amu Darya River, relied on by water-starved Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. This project, while critical for Afghanistan's food security, has caused tensions with these neighboring countries.

Refugee Concerns and Violence

According to the United Nations, there are now 7.6 million Afghans in Iran and Pakistan, most of them refugees. In 2023, Pakistan expelled over 540,000 Afghan refugees, and the next phase of the plan may see 800,000 more Afghans deported. Increased violence will likely reverse these flows and burden Iran and Pakistan, who cannot afford to support the refugees they have now.

China's Warning to Pakistan

China recently warned Pakistan that it must get control of the violence that is endangering the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. More violence north of the Durand Line will further delay the corridor, which may be seen as a strategic “win” in Washington but will hurt Central and South Asia.

Taliban's Ban on Poppy Cultivation

In April 2022, the Taliban banned poppy cultivation and methamphetamine production. This benefits Iran, which has the highest rate of opium abusers in the world, according to the World Health Organization. However, if Afghanistan must fund a war against groups like the National Resistance Front, the ban on drugs may be disregarded.

International Relations with the Taliban

Despite the Taliban's controversial policies, pragmatism may be winning. Seventeen countries, including every country that borders Afghanistan plus the European Union, maintain a diplomatic presence in Kabul. China and the United Arab Emirates have accepted the credentials from the Taliban ambassador to their capitals.

Local Leadership and International Support

After the failure of the Shoulder to Shoulder initiative, it is time for local leadership to take the reins. Washington and Brussels can assist by facilitating diplomatic and economic support of beneficial projects. The Americans, in particular, will need to understand the needs and opportunities of the region instead of obsessing about what might have been.

Bottom Line

The defeat of the U.S. and NATO may have marked the end of the era of empires in Central Asia and Afghanistan. While some questionable characters may profit from the situation, this could be the price of repairing the damage caused by the crusade to reform Afghan culture as part of Washington’s post 9/11 war on terror. What do you think about this complex situation? Share your thoughts and this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, delivered every day at 6pm.