Analysis Indicates Decreased Demand for iPhone 16 Pro
Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has published a pre-order analysis report on the iPhone 16, following its launch event last week. The report indicates a lower demand for the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max, with a higher demand for the base models. This contradicts the predictions of many Wall Street analysts who believed that the new AI Siri features in the new iPhone would trigger a significant upgrade cycle.
Key Findings from the Report
According to Kuo's report, the analysis was based on the latest supply chain survey and pre-order results from Apple's official websites. The report includes key data on the first-weekend pre-orders for each iPhone 16 model, including pre-order sales, average delivery times, and shipments before pre-order.
Kuo's key findings include:
- First Weekend pre-order sales were estimated based on each model's delivery time and production plans for that period.
- Average delivery time was calculated from results on Apple's official websites in major iPhone markets 48 hours after pre-orders opened.
- Shipments before pre-order were accounted for by the production volume before pre-orders.
Kuo's Conclusions
Kuo estimated that the iPhone 16 series first-weekend pre-order sales were about 37 million units, a drop of 12.7% YoY from last year's iPhone 15 series. The main reason for this is the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series.
The delivery times of the iPhone 16 Pro series were significantly shorter than those of the 15 Pro series. This, along with the increase in shipments before the pre-order, indicates that demand was lower than expected.
The significant YoY growth in shipments before pre-order for the iPhone 16 Pro Max can be attributed to improved tetraprism camera production yields and Apple's optimistic outlook for demand for this model.
The major selling point of the iPhone 16 Pro series, Apple Intelligence, was not available at launch. This, along with intense competition in the Chinese market, has affected iPhone demand.
First-weekend sales of the iPhone 16 Plus and standard version were up YoY, but their impact on total iPhone shipments was limited.
Despite the YoY decline in first-weekend pre-order sales of the iPhone 16 Pro series, Apple's production plans are unlikely to change significantly in the near term. The release of Apple Intelligence and peak season promotions could still improve sales.
Consumer Interest Shifts to Base iPhone Models
The report suggests that consumers are more interested in the base iPhone models during this launch cycle than in the Pro series. This could be due to pricing concerns in a time of high inflation and interest rates, or because the Pro models are too large. The exact reasons are not clear.
Apple shares have fallen by more than 2% in the markets.
Wall Street's expectations for a strong iPhone upgrade cycle driven by Siri AI are now in doubt following this report.
Bottom Line
The report by Ming-Chi Kuo raises interesting questions about consumer preferences and the impact of economic factors on technology demand. It seems that the expected surge in demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series did not materialize as expected. What are your thoughts on this? Do you think the base models of the iPhone 16 are more appealing to consumers? Share your thoughts and this article with your friends. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
