Ballot Drop-Boxes Set on Fire in Portland, Vancouver Could Impact Tight US House Race
Pre-Election Tensions Escalate
As the election day draws closer, tensions are escalating. Two ballot drop-boxes in the neighboring cities of Portland, Oregon, and Vancouver, Washington, were set on fire with incendiary devices early Monday morning. This act of arson destroyed hundreds of ballots and could potentially influence the outcome of one of the country's most closely contested US House races. Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs strongly condemned these acts of terror that aim to disrupt lawful and fair elections in Washington state.
Damage to Ballot Boxes
The ballot box in Portland was less damaged, thanks to the successful activation of its internal fire-suppression system. Only three ballots were harmed. However, the situation was different in Vancouver, where hundreds of ballots were completely destroyed when the box's anti-arson technology failed. Both boxes were equipped with systems designed to release a flame-suppressing powder when a certain temperature is detected. The Vancouver box had last been emptied at 8:00 am on Sunday.
Investigation into the Incident
The Portland box was attacked at 3:30 am and the Vancouver box at 4:00 am. Portland police released photos of a Volvo S-60 they believe was involved in both incidents. The model year is estimated to be between 2001 and 2004. The sedan did not have a front license plate, and the police were unable to read the rear tag. Investigators suspect that Monday's twin attacks are connected to an earlier incident on Oct. 8 in Vancouver, where a box was found burning with some type of device lying next to it. Fortunately, no ballots were damaged in that incident.
Impact on Tight House Race
Vancouver is part of Washington's 3rd Congressional District, which is home to what is widely considered the country's tightest House race. In 2022, Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez narrowly defeated Republican former Green Beret and CIA field agent Joe Kent by just 2,629 votes out of nearly 320,000 votes cast. This year's race is a rematch, and Gluesenkamp Perez is considered the House Democrat at greatest risk of losing her seat. Trump won the district in both 2016 and 2020.
The Washington-3 race could potentially decide control of the House. 538's simulator gives the GOP a 52% chance of maintaining control. Conversely, The Economist's model favors the Democrats with a 53% to 47% probability margin.
Democrats account for 54% of mail-in ballots requested in Washington, compared to Republicans who requested 36% of total requests. Any attack on a drop-box would generally seem likely to benefit Republicans, especially when those boxes are in urban areas that lean more Democratic.
Reaction to the Incident
Portland Police Bureau Assistant Chief Amanda McMillan told reporters on Monday that the motives behind these acts are unknown, but they appear to be targeted and intentional. She expressed concern about these intentional acts trying to influence the election process.
Clark County Washington auditor Greg Kimsey encouraged people who had dropped ballots in the box after 11 am Saturday to call his office and request a new ballot. He announced that his department will increase ballot-pickup frequency, switch to evening collection, and hire monitors to provide 24-hour supervision of the boxes. He clarified that the monitors will be instructed not to confront arsonists, but to call 911 if they notice something suspicious.
Last week, a suspect who allegedly set fire to a ballot drop-box located at a post office in Phoenix, Arizona was arrested by the police. Approximately 20 ballots were believed to have been damaged in the incident that occurred at 1:20 am.
Bottom Line
From an intense media blitz to ballot boxes being set on fire in three states, the pre-election atmosphere is certainly heating up. It's a disturbing reminder of the lengths some individuals will go to disrupt the democratic process. What are your thoughts on these incidents? Do you think they could potentially impact the election results? Share your thoughts with your friends and consider signing up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.