CNN Data Analyst Predicts Trump Might Win Popular Vote

Trump's Potential Victory

Harry Enten, a data analyst from CNN, proposed on Friday that Donald Trump could potentially win the popular vote on November 5th. This would be a significant event since a Republican candidate hasn't won the popular vote in 20 years. If this prediction comes true, Trump would almost certainly secure a win in the electoral college and consequently, the election.

Polls Indicate a Close Race

Enten's prediction is based on a New York Times/Siena College poll released last week, which showed Trump and Kamala Harris tied at 48% in the national popular vote. He said, "Everyone has been talking about this idea that Trump may win in the Electoral College, but Kamala Harris may win the popular vote, but Trump may finally get his great white whale." Furthermore, Enten mentioned that both Wall Street Journal and CNBC polls also show Trump leading Harris in the popular vote.

Trump's Possible Popular Vote Victory

Enten, in his role as a data analyst, warned viewers, regardless of their political leanings, about the possibility of Trump winning the popular vote. He urged, "Part of my job is to warn our viewers, on either side of the aisle, of an event that may occur, that they don’t necessarily like, and Donald Trump winning the popular vote could ABSOLUTELY happen." He advised those who are not in favor of Trump to prepare for this potential outcome, noting that the heads of Democrat supporters are currently "exploding."

Trump Leads in RCP Average

The RCP average shows Trump leading the popular vote for the first time in his political career by two points. If this prediction comes true, Trump would only be the second Republican in 36 years to win the popular vote.

2024 Election Forecast

The 2024 election forecast based on the most accurate poll of 2020 shows Trump leading in the electoral college with 323 votes against Harris' 215. In terms of the popular vote, Trump is predicted to lead with 50.7% (+3.1) against Harris' 47.6%.

Bottom Line

The possibility of Donald Trump winning the popular vote in the upcoming election is a significant prediction, considering that a Republican candidate hasn't achieved this in the last 20 years. As the election draws closer, it will be interesting to see how these predictions pan out. What are your thoughts on this? Feel free to share this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.