Estonian Prime Minister Alters Western Victory Conditions in Ukraine

Estonia's Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, despite being known as a staunch anti-Russian figure in the West, has recently shifted the Western bloc's definition of victory in Ukraine. In a recent interview with the BBC, Kallas stated, "Victory in Ukraine is not just about territory. If Ukraine joins Nato, even without some territory, then that’s a victory because it will be placed under the Nato umbrella." This statement diverges from the previous Western goal of restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders.

Background to Kallas' Statement

The following briefings provide some context to Kallas' statement: * The West is now more openly allowing Ukraine to use its arms to strike inside Russia. * Russia is open to compromise but won’t agree to a ceasefire that doesn’t meet its interests. * The US is playing a dangerous game of nuclear chicken with Russia. * Putin expects NATO, and possibly Poland in particular, to escalate the proxy war in Ukraine. * Ukraine may have attacked Russia’s early warning systems with American approval.

Summary of Recent Events

The West is concerned about Russia making a military breakthrough, particularly around the Kharkov Region. As a result, it is now more openly allowing Ukraine to use their arms to strike targets within Russia. Poland is also considering shooting down Russian missiles over Western Ukraine and initiating a conventional intervention. Meanwhile, Ukraine has begun attacking Russia’s early nuclear warning systems, which is a highly dangerous move. The proxy war between NATO and Russia in Ukraine is set to intensify. The West seems to be aiming to "escalate to de-escalate" to freeze the conflict on terms more favorable to them, assuming the escalation remains manageable. The upcoming Swiss "peace talks" are unlikely to succeed, but a parallel joint Sino-Brazilian peace process could emerge and culminate in a diplomatic gathering at November’s G20 in Rio.

Interpreting Kallas' Comments

Kallas' recent statement suggests a willingness to compromise via a Korean-like armistice scenario, as suggested by former NATO Supreme Commander Admiral James Stavridis. Ukraine's bilateral "security guarantees" with NATO members, especially the US and Poland, could be presented as de facto membership that doesn't cross Russia’s red line of formal membership. Regarding Article 5, Kallas stated that those who send troops to Ukraine independently as members of implied 'coalitions of the willing' do so at their own risk. However, it's unlikely that the US would abandon its allies if their forces were attacked by Russia. This scenario would likely provoke a crisis that could only realistically be resolved through Ukraine’s asymmetrical partition.

What's Next?

There may be a gap of several months between freezing the conflict and a potential diplomatic gathering in Rio this winter. During this time, bilateral negotiations could take place between Russia and the US to work out the details. However, it's also possible that Russia may not achieve a military breakthrough, NATO members may not intervene conventionally, no brinksmanship may occur, and the conflict may continue at its current pace. Kallas' statement is significant as it suggests that the West's most hawkish anti-Russian faction might be willing to freeze the conflict instead of risking World War III. This shift may be due to the recognition that Russia has already won the "race of logistics" and that the West’s planned maximum victory is unattainable.

Conclusion

Given the military-strategic dynamics discussed in this analysis, the situation is likely to worsen before it improves. However, the emerging Sino-Brazilian peace process provides hope for a possible compromise by November’s G20. For this to happen, the impending NATO-Russian escalation in Ukraine must remain manageable. But this cannot be taken for granted, given the desperation of some Western hawks to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia despite the odds. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do you think the West's shift in victory conditions will lead to a resolution in Ukraine? Share this article with your friends and let us know your opinions. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.