Insights from 2016 and 2020 Polling for the Current Election

Trump's Performance in Current Polls

With the general election just around the corner, former President Donald Trump appears to be doing significantly better in both national and battleground state polling compared to his performance in 2016 and 2020. According to an average of national polls compiled and published by RealClearPolitics on Oct. 22, Trump is trailing Harris by less than a percentage point. This is a notable improvement from the same day in 2020, when Trump trailed President Joe Biden by 7.9 percentage points, and in 2016, when he trailed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 6.1 points.

Trump's Standing in Battleground States

As of Oct. 22, Trump is leading the Democratic Party’s candidate in all seven battleground states —Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—that may well decide the outcome of the Electoral College. This is a marked improvement from his performance in these states in 2016 and 2020. Top pollsters in the United States suggest that this could indicate that polls are doing a better job of capturing voter sentiment than they had in the past two presidential elections. They also believe the polling is a significant indicator that Trump is running a close race with Vice President Kamala Harris and may well have the advantage heading into Election Day.

Improvements in Polling Methodology

Trump exceeded the expectations set by statewide polling in the seven battleground states in his past two runs. In 2016, he overperformed polling by about 5.8 percentage points, and in 2020, he beat his polling by about 3.2 percentage points. Major pollsters have made improvements to their methodologies in the years following 2016 and 2020. They have worked to correct issues such as undercounting Trump supporters due to not recognizing the demographics that back Trump, oversampling Democrat voters, and undersampling Republican voters.

Confidence in Polling

Despite past failures, some believe Americans should continue to trust polls published by reputable organizations with a long track record of success. However, in 2024, more polls than ever before are being published by organizations that may not use the same quality of sampling methods as more reputable pollsters.

Bottom Line

It's fascinating to see how polling methods have evolved and improved over the years, leading to more accurate predictions. As we approach the election, it's important to remember that while polls can provide a snapshot of current public opinion, the only poll that truly matters is the one on Election Day. What are your thoughts on this? Do you think the improvements in polling will lead to more accurate predictions this year? Share this article with your friends and let us know your thoughts. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing which is everyday at 6pm.