Israeli Defense Forces Launch Attacks on Iranian Military Assets
On Friday night, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) initiated three waves of fighter jet strikes against high-value military targets in Iran. IDF officials stated that this operation was in response to "months of relentless attacks" coordinated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Israel and its regional allies. Although no images or videos of the Israeli strikes were made available online, geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) data by Saturday evening indicated that a former nuclear weapons building and missile sites were the targets.
Analysts Assess the Impact of Israeli Strikes
David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector, and Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington-based think tank, utilized commercial satellite imagery to independently evaluate the effectiveness of the Israeli strikes. They informed Reuters that IDF fighter jets had targeted Iran's Parchin military base with missiles and bombs. This site is suspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have been used by the IRGC for testing high explosives capable of triggering a nuclear explosion.
The Khojir military base, believed to house an underground tunnel system and missile production site, was also targeted by the IDF. Eveleth suggested that the IDF's strike may have "significantly hampered Iran's ability to mass produce missiles." He added that satellite imagery data from commercial satellite firm Planet Labs showed IDF jets hitting three ballistic missile solid fuel mixing buildings and a warehouse at Khojir.
Israeli Strikes Could Have Significant Impact on Iran's Missile Production
According to the imagery reviewed by Reuters, the targeted buildings were surrounded by high dirt berms. Such structures are typically associated with missile production and are designed to prevent a blast in one building from igniting combustible materials in nearby structures.
Eveleth explained that Israel claimed to have targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers. "These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense, and will likely have a hard time replacing them." He added that with this limited operation, Israel may have dealt a significant blow to Iran's ability to mass-produce missiles and made it more challenging for any future Iranian missile attack to penetrate Israel's missile defenses. "The strikes appear to be highly accurate," he said.
Further Strikes on Iran Could Target IRGC's Financial Network
It is likely that this is the first round of IDF strikes on Iran aimed at paralyzing the IRGC's command and control center. The leaked US intel of IDF preparations may have delayed the operation - possibly the leaker was attempting to delay the strikes until after the US presidential elections. Additional strikes on Iran could potentially target the IRGC's financial network and ability to export crude to China.
In the markets, the geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude has recently decreased as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels around the Middle East to prevent World War III from occurring before the US presidential elections in early November. However, after the elections, the situation could escalate, potentially causing Brent crude prices to rise significantly.
Before the IDF strike on Iran on Friday, the US provided a defense guarantee to the Saudis. This is likely because the Abqaiq refinery - the world's largest crude oil stabilization plant - is potentially in the sights of future IRGC missile and drone attacks.
Bottom Line
This recent development in the Middle East has the potential to significantly impact regional stability and global markets. The IDF strikes on Iran could have far-reaching implications, particularly if they have indeed crippled Iran's ability to mass-produce missiles. It remains to be seen how this situation will unfold after the US presidential elections. What are your thoughts on this matter? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss it further. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
