Lebanon Prime Minister Anticipates Ceasefire
Lebanon's acting Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, has expressed a hopeful outlook regarding the potential for peace in Lebanon. He suggested on Wednesday that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah could be within reach in the near future. His optimism stems from a promising discussion with US special envoy Amos Hochstein, concerning a new ceasefire proposal endorsed by Washington. "We are striving to achieve a ceasefire within the next few hours or days," Mikati told Al-Jadeed, a Lebanese broadcaster, while maintaining a cautious optimism.
Mikati has reasons to believe that a comprehensive ceasefire is achievable and realistic before the US election on November 5. Similarly, an Israeli official informed ABC News about the "significant progress" being made towards a ceasefire in Lebanon.
White House Advisers in Israel to Finalize Ceasefire Deal
Two senior White House advisers arrived in Israel on Thursday to finalize and seal the deal. Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk are reportedly approaching the negotiations with the belief that Hezbollah, having suffered numerous setbacks including the loss of its long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, is seeking to distance itself from Hamas and the Gaza war.
A report by Axios suggests that a deal to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah could be reached within a few weeks, according to Israeli and U.S. officials. The report also outlined the simultaneous diplomatic engagements of the US in the region:
Israeli officials reported that Biden adviser Amos Hochstein was awaiting a decision from Israeli leaders about whether to proceed with the deal before he travelled to Israel. The fact that he and Biden adviser Brett McGurk are visiting suggests Netanyahu is open to pursuing the deal.
CIA director Bill Burns is scheduled to be in Cairo on Thursday to discuss bilateral matters and the process to secure the release of hostages with Egyptian counterparts.
CENTCOM Commander Gen. Erik Kurilla is travelling to the region to discuss regional defense and will visit Israel to engage with counterparts and U.S. personnel.
Details of the US-Proposed Ceasefire Deal
According to Israeli media, details of the US-proposed deal have been leaked online. The ceasefire proposal begins with a 60-day implementation period, during which the Lebanese army will deploy along the border and confiscate Hezbollah arms in southern Lebanon, as reported by the Times of Israel. The IDF will be required to withdraw all troops from Lebanon within seven days of the end of hostilities, and they will be replaced by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). UN peacekeeping troops will reportedly facilitate the transition, along with approximately 10,000 Lebanese national army troops.
Upon completion of the 60-day implementation period, Israel and Lebanon will hold indirect negotiations via the US on fully implementing Resolution 1701 and resolving border disputes. A new International Monitoring and Enforcement Mechanism (IMEM) will be established, with the US serving as chair and with the participation of Italy, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, UNIFIL and regional countries.
Continued Airstrikes and Rocket Attacks
In the meantime, Israel's airstrikes on positions in the south, Beirut, and even in the northeast have continued. The strikes have even expanded, with the Bekaa Valley getting pounded, and Tyre getting hit again on Thursday. On the same day, reports emerged that at least six civilians have been killed by Hezbollah rocket attacks on the north, including some foreign workers in the city of Metula. An Israeli woman has also been killed in Haifa Bay.
Bottom Line
The potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah could mark a significant turning point in the region's history. However, the continued airstrikes and rocket attacks underscore the delicate and volatile nature of the situation. It remains to be seen whether the hopeful words of Lebanon's Prime Minister and the diplomatic efforts of the US will translate into a lasting peace. What are your thoughts on this matter? Please share this article with your friends and sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
