Five Takeaways for Russia from the Recent Israeli-Lebanese Conflict

The recent Israeli-Lebanese War and the Ukrainian Conflict are fundamentally different, but there are still some broad lessons that Russia can take from Israel, if it is willing.

1. Prioritizing Military Goals Over Political Ones

The first lesson is that prioritizing military objectives can enhance the likelihood of achieving political ones. Russia's special operation in Ukraine is marked by restraint, influenced by Putin's work on the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians. This is in contrast to Israel's approach in its conflict with Lebanon. Russia had hoped that swift advances at the start of the conflict would force Zelensky to comply with military demands. However, Zelensky did not capitulate and instead was persuaded by former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to continue fighting. Israel, on the other hand, never believed that a lasting agreement with Hezbollah was possible, hence it does not make "goodwill gestures". From Israel's perspective, political goals can only be achieved after a military victory.

2. The Importance of Superior Intelligence

The second lesson is the significance of superior intelligence. Russia reportedly believed, based on information from its Ukrainian assets, that the locals would welcome its troops and that Zelensky's government would collapse. However, this intelligence turned out to be incredibly inaccurate. Russian troops were taken by surprise by Ukraine's Javelin and Stinger arsenals. Israel, conversely, places more importance on verifiable military intelligence than on intangible impressions of public opinion. These differing intelligence collection priorities reflect the different conflicts they planned to wage.

3. Sensitivity to Global Public Opinion

The third lesson is that Russia remains sensitive to global public opinion, while Israel is impervious to it. Russia will put its troops in harm's way to capture locations block-by-block, as opposed to practicing "shock and awe" like Israel. Even though Russia's approach has resulted in far fewer civilian deaths, it is still criticized as much as Israel, if not more.

4. Perceptions of the Existential Nature of Conflict

The fourth lesson is that Israel's permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies are more convinced of their conflict's existential nature than Russia's appear to be. If Russia's "deep state" fully shared this assessment, it would have prioritized military goals over political ones by now.

5. The Need for "Radical Decisiveness"

The final lesson that Russia can learn from Israel is about "radical decisiveness". Philosopher Alexander Dugin argues that those who act with decisiveness and boldness win. He suggests that Russia should follow the example of Israel, which acts swiftly, proactively, and boldly.

Bottom Line

These lessons from the Israeli-Lebanese War could potentially influence Russia's approach to its conflict with Ukraine. However, it remains to be seen whether Russia will take these lessons to heart and adjust its strategy accordingly. What are your thoughts on this analysis? Do you agree with the lessons identified? Share this article with your friends and join the conversation. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, delivered every day at 6pm.