Mongolia's Welcome to Putin Highlights South Africa's Political Timidity
President Putin received a warm welcome in Mongolia on his recent visit, complete with an honor guard and an impressive delegation. This is standard for state visits, but what makes this one exceptional is that Mongolia is a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and is therefore obligated to act on the ICC's politicized arrest warrant for Putin.
Despite this, the Mongolian government defied Western pressure and prioritized their national interests. This move is seen as a recalibration of their geopolitical balancing act in a decisively pro-Russian direction due to the accelerated global systemic transition to multipolarity.
This bold stance by Mongolia, a sparsely populated and landlocked state, stands in stark contrast to South Africa's reluctance to host Putin during last year's BRICS Summit.
South Africa's Missed Opportunity
South Africa had the chance to assert its post-Apartheid sovereignty by defying Western pressure to arrest Putin, in line with their ICC obligations. However, they chose to sacrifice these national soft power interests to appease the West.
This decision was made despite South Africa being more populous, militarily stronger, and more prosperous than Mongolia. Furthermore, South Africa is a BRICS member, yet they still didn't dare to host Putin.
This situation highlights that a country's metrics – the size of its population, military, and economy, as well as its membership in international organizations – aren't always the most accurate indicators of sovereignty.
The Role of Policymaking Elites
A better predictor of whether a country will comply with or defy external pressure is the composition of its policymaking elite, which is part of its "deep state" and is influenced by it.
South Africa's policymaking elite has pro-Western and multipolar factions, like most Global South countries. While the dynamics of these institutions are difficult to discern, the balance of influence seems to be tilted towards the pro-Western faction, as evidenced by last summer's events.
However, South Africa is not a Western puppet, as it still won't sanction Russia despite immense Western pressure. Nevertheless, their reluctance to host Putin was disappointing.
Mongolia's Different Approach
Mongolia's policymaking elite has been multi-aligning, like India, since the end of the Old Cold War through their "Third Neighbor Policy". This policy advocates for the cultivation of strategic partnerships abroad to preemptively avert potentially disproportionate dependence on its Russian and/or Chinese neighbors.
Mongolia has been practicing a more nimble foreign policy than South Africa since 1991, and its elite are therefore more comfortable balancing between competing power centers and taking decisive action in furtherance of national interests when needed.
Understanding the Limitations of BRICS
Insights about the composition of countries’ policymakers and the dynamics between their “deep state” factions can help observers better understand the limitations of BRICS. This group is revealed to be a network of countries that voluntarily coordinate policy with a view towards accelerating financial multipolarity processes, not an “anti-Western bloc”.
South Africa’s political timidity in refusing to host Putin during last year’s summit was disappointing, but it had no impact on their shared network’s operations. Similarly, if ICC member Brazil also refuses to host the Russian leader during next year’s summit, BRICS will continue functioning as intended.
Bottom Line
Countries like South Africa that officially commit to accelerating financial multipolarity processes are sometimes more influenced by Western political pressure than comparatively smaller and weaker countries like Mongolia that haven’t officially committed to that.
Everything ultimately comes down to the composition of a country’s policymaking elite and their intra-“deep state” dynamics, not whether or not a country is part of BRICS or any other group.
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