No Recent Tropical Storms or Hurricanes in the Atlantic

Three Weeks Without a Named Storm

Over three weeks have passed without any named tropical storm or hurricane forming in the Atlantic, as reported by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on September 5. Despite the detection of five low pressure disturbances in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, it does not seem likely that this streak will be broken in the coming days.

The last named hurricane, Ernesto, was identified on August 12, with the final advisory about the storm issued on August 20. By that time, Ernesto was moving over the north Atlantic, over 400 miles east-northeast of Newfoundland, Canada. This signifies a three-week gap since a tropical cyclone reached a strength and level of organized convection that warranted a name, and two weeks since a tropical cyclone advisory was issued.

Each of the five low pressure disturbances has a small chance of escalating into a tropical storm within the next week. Stan Goldenberg, a meteorologist for the Hurricane Research Division at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory, noted that the Atlantic basin is starting to show signs of activity after a few weeks of quiet. He suggested several reasons for the lack of development, such as the current state of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a storm-producing phenomenon, and enduring dryness in the air.

Potential Storm Developments

Only two of the disturbances seem to be impacting land immediately. Disturbance 1 is currently affecting the northwest Gulf Coast around Texas and Louisiana, with a 10 percent chance of further development in the next week. The NHC has warned of heavy rainfall in parts of the northern Gulf Coast in the next day or so.

Meanwhile, Disturbance 4 is expected to reach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by August 6, with disorganized showers and thunderstorm activity. The most likely disturbance to develop was spotted in the northwest Atlantic ocean between North Carolina and Bermuda. The NHC has labeled this storm L99, giving it a 30 percent chance of developing in the next 48 hours, with better-organized showers and thunderstorms and near-gale force winds.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook also tracks the potential for storm development. However, it too suggests that the relative calm will continue. Dan Harnos, a meteorologist for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, stated that the outlook suggests a greater than 40 percent chance that a hurricane will develop between September 11 and 17 in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.

Named Storms

Tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic are given names in alphabetical order throughout the season. As of September 5, only five named storms were recorded, with only three of those reaching hurricane status. For comparison, in 2023, the NHC reported seven named storms within the two-week period between August 20 and September 5.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, and NOAA has predicted a 90 percent chance that 2024 will have higher than normal activity. The 2024 season is expected to have 17 to 24 named storms, with eight to 13 of them being hurricanes and four to seven being major hurricanes.

Bottom Line

While the lack of recent storm activity may be surprising given the historical peak of the season, the atmospheric conditions are preventing any of the waves originating off the coast of Africa from developing further. However, it's important to remember that the 2024 season is far from over and it only takes one tropical storm or hurricane to cause a catastrophe. Therefore, residents in hurricane-prone areas should remain prepared. What are your thoughts on this current lull in storm activity? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss. Also, don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.