The Intriguing Link Between Oasis and Market Volatility
Oasis' Reunion Tour Announcement
The music industry was abuzz with excitement on Tuesday, 27th August, when it was announced that Oasis would be embarking on a reunion tour. While not the most avid fan, I found myself caught up in the excitement alongside the rest of the Oasis fan base. This included checking when tickets were on sale, entering pre-ticket ballots, and even reading up on the band's journey to their current success.
Oasis' Timing and Market Volatility
While reading through various online biographies, I noticed that the band seems to have an uncanny knack for timing their most notable chapters with periods of extreme volatility in financial markets. This includes their formation during the early 1990s recession, the release of their infamous Definitely Maybe album in 1994 during the Great Bond Massacre, and their breakup in August 2009, just after the Global Financial Crisis. This led me to wonder, could the Oasis reunion be a forewarning of what’s to come?
The Formation of Oasis
Oasis was formed when Liam Gallagher, Paul Arthurs, Paul McGuigan, and Tony McCarroll invited Noel Gallagher to join as the lead guitarist. At the time, the economy was being tipped into a recession due to an overspill of inflation and monetary policy effects from the ‘80s, combined with an oil price shock caused by Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and growing consumer pessimism.
The Release of Definitely Maybe and the Great Bond Massacre
Definitely Maybe, released on 29th August 1994, was the fastest-selling debut album of all time in the UK when it was released. This was also a time when the bond markets experienced a brutal sell-off, later known as the 'Great Bond Massacre'. This period was characterized by a rise in interest rates and the spread of volatility across international markets, resulting in a very challenging period for market participants.
Oasis' Breakup and the Global Financial Crisis
The band's breakup in 2009, a year after the Global Financial Crisis, was another significant event that coincided with market volatility. The Gallaghers called an end to Oasis after the Global Financial Crisis, despite the economy starting to recover. This once again highlighted that a significant point in the Oasis story coincided with a period of extreme volatility in financial markets.
Oasis' Reunion: A Warning Sign?
On 27th August, almost exactly 30 years after Definitely Maybe was released, and almost exactly 15 years after the band's breakup, Oasis announced its reunion tour. While I don't wish to jump to conclusions as to why Oasis decided to reunite, I can't help but wonder if it could be a warning of imminent volatility in financial markets. This is especially considering the economic cycle is at an interesting inflection point, and there are concerns about whether interest rates have been too high for too long, causing damage to the economy in its current cycle.
Bottom Line
Could the timing of Oasis' formation, the release of the Definitely Maybe album, and the band's breakup, all coinciding with periods of volatility in financial markets, be purely coincidental? Or could the band's reunion be a sign of impending market volatility? That's something for you to decide. What do you think about this intriguing link between Oasis and market volatility? Share your thoughts with your friends and sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is every day at 6pm.
