Orban's Ceasefire Proposal: A Fruitless Endeavor?

Orban's Peace Proposal

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, during his visit to Italy, proposed a peace plan for the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. He suggested that communication should be the first step, followed by a ceasefire, and only then can talks about a peace agreement commence. He also pointed out that the European Union is against all three of these steps, as it seems to be pursuing a policy that supports the ongoing war.

Orban's Previous Peace Missions

Orban has previously made efforts towards peace, as evidenced by his peace missions over the summer. He has been open about his intentions and efforts, and his ceasefire proposal is no different. However, it seems unlikely that this proposal will lead to any significant changes in the current situation.

Russia's Stance on the Ceasefire

A ceasefire is not an option for Russia as long as Ukraine continues to occupy part of Kursk. Russia may be open to other "goodwill gestures", as revealed by Lavrov when he mentioned that Russia was close to reviving the grain deal this spring. However, these gestures are seen as costless means to politically resolve the conflict.

The Possibility of a Ceasefire

The only way a ceasefire could occur is if Ukraine agrees to withdraw from Kursk as a "goodwill gesture". However, this seems unlikely as Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, has confirmed that his forces plan to hold Kursk indefinitely. Therefore, no progress on Orban's proposal is expected until Russia can push the Ukrainians out of Kursk. The timeline for this is uncertain.

Future Developments

The capture of Pokrovsk by Russia could potentially force Ukraine to withdraw from Kursk to prevent the collapse of the front lines. However, there is no guarantee that Ukraine won't turn Pokrovsk into another Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), Avdeevka, or Mariupol, which could prolong their hold on Kursk. This could potentially revive interest in a ceasefire, but it's uncertain if this sequence of events will unfold, or if either side would agree to a ceasefire even if it does.

Bottom Line

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is complex and multifaceted, and while Orban's proposal for a ceasefire may seem like a step in the right direction, it is unlikely to bring about any significant changes in the current situation. The question remains: Can a ceasefire be achieved in the near future, or will the conflict continue to escalate? We invite you to share your thoughts on this matter and discuss it with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.