The Potential Aftermath of a Nuclear Detonation in Space

In February, it came to light that Russia is in the process of creating a nuclear-armed anti-satellite weapon. The Biden administration has primarily responded by focusing on arms control efforts to prevent Russia from obtaining a space-based nuclear weapon. While these efforts are crucial, they may not be enough. It's essential to prepare for the possibility that diplomacy might not succeed. Nuclear anti-satellite weapons could drastically change existing nuclear paradigms, leading to a more unstable environment than the current one. The U.S. needs to act now to be prepared for the challenges that nuclear weapons in space could pose. By preparing before such weapons are in orbit, the U.S. can work more effectively to prevent such a day from ever occurring.

Impacts on U.S. Deterrence Strategy

The U.S. deterrence strategy has traditionally relied on its ability to adjust both conventional and nuclear response options to various contingencies, along with deliberate ambiguity about when it would use nuclear weapons. These principles could be discarded if a nuclear anti-satellite weapon were detonated today. The exact capabilities of Russia's space weapon are not known, but it's likely to be as threatening to its own satellites as it is to those of the U.S. John Plumb, then-Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, testified in May that Russia's weapon would be "indiscriminate," posing a threat to all satellites operated globally by countries and companies. Consequently, the U.S. might not be able to retaliate against Russia in space if it detonated its weapon. The only option would be to target on-ground locations. Currently, conventional U.S. forces heavily depend on satellite-provided GPS, intelligence, and communications. A conventional strike in this environment would be extremely challenging, if not impossible, to execute. A nuclear strike would be more feasible, albeit also difficult. It's essential to discuss whether a surface nuclear strike would be an appropriate response to a nuclear attack that doesn't directly harm people on Earth.

Preserving Response Options

Despite these challenges, it's crucial for the president to have various options to respond to the use of such a weapon. Therefore, the ability of conventional military forces to operate without satellite access will be key to deterrence in a world with nuclear anti-satellite weapons. If satellites were disabled following the detonation of a nuclear space weapon, the ability of long-range strike fighter aircraft and bombers to execute non-nuclear surface attacks against enemy targets would be vital to maintaining the option of a conventional response. Efforts have been made to enhance the ability of U.S. forces to fight in a space-less environment, but these have been limited compared to activities aimed at maintaining such access. Once a nuclear anti-satellite weapon is detonated, these efforts will likely not be viable options. The Navy and Air Force, with support from the Space Force, should simulate different "denied space" scenarios to learn how to operate in an environment without satellite access. The lessons from these simulations should then be applied and continued in actual live military exercises. These exercises would train pilots, aircrews, and commanders to conduct operations in a denied space environment and also show Russia and other potential U.S. adversaries that the U.S. will always have the option of retaliating with varying degrees of force to any type of nuclear aggression.

Bottom Line

While the U.S. should continue its arms control efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons in space, it also needs to be ready for the possibility that these efforts might not succeed. By preparing conventional strike fighter assets to operate in a denied space environment, the U.S. will be adequately prepared for a world where nuclear weapons orbit the Earth. This article presents a thought-provoking perspective on the potential aftermath of a nuclear detonation in space. What are your thoughts on this matter? Share this article with your friends and spark a conversation. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.