Putin's Unyielding Stance

Recent Legislation and its Implications

Two weeks ago, the Congress passed four significant pieces of legislation related to national security, which were subsequently signed by President Biden. The bills that received the most attention were those providing assistance to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. However, the least noticed one was a mixed bag of provisions, including a forced divestiture of TikTok. The bill also contained the REPO Act, which empowers the president to seize any Russian assets, including U.S. Treasury securities, under U.S. jurisdiction.

While the REPO Act's impact is limited by the fact that only about $10 billion of Russian sovereign assets are under U.S. jurisdiction, the act envisions this seizure as a precursor to a larger one to be carried out by NATO allies in Europe. The act stipulates that the assets seized by the U.S. will be contributed to the Common Ukraine Fund. The U.S., undoubtedly, will have the most influential voice in managing the $290 billion common fund. The U.S. aims to use the G7 summit in Apulia, Italy, on June 13–15 as a platform to persuade other G7 members to support the Common Ukraine Fund and seize any Russian assets under their jurisdiction.

The Danger of "Mirror Imaging"

One of the persistent problems in intelligence analysis is "mirror imaging." This term refers to an analytic flaw where the analyst assumes that his beliefs and preferences are shared by an adversary. Instead of understanding the adversary as he truly is, the analyst is looking in a mirror, assuming he is looking at the adversary. This flaw is particularly dangerous and can lead to severe misunderstandings and miscalculations.

Putin's Track Record

Vladimir Putin's actions have consistently defied U.S. intelligence analysis. In 2008, when President Bush suggested that Ukraine and Georgia should join NATO, Putin invaded Georgia a few months later, annexing part of its territory and thwarting Georgia's chances of joining NATO. In 2014, the U.S. supported a coup d'état in Ukraine, leading Putin to annex Crimea and incorporate it into the Russian Federation. In February 2022, Russia began a military operation resulting in a significant number of Ukrainian casualties. In each case, U.S. analysts underestimated Putin's resolve, assuming that his actions would somehow weaken Russia. However, Putin's actions have shown that he does not bluff.

Escalation of Asset Seizure

Following the signing of the legislation authorizing the seizure of Russian assets, a Russian court ordered the seizure of $440 million from JPMorgan. This action marks the beginning of an escalation in the asset seizure war, a war that Putin is likely to win. Unfortunately, the geopolitical situation is also escalating, with the U.S. and some of its European allies growing increasingly concerned about Ukraine's ability to resist Russia.

The Situation in Ukraine

The recent $61 billion aid package for Ukraine won't be enough to reverse the tide. The problem isn't a lack of money but a lack of weapons, ammunition, and trained manpower. Ukraine is struggling to find new volunteers, with an estimated 650,000 fighting-age men having fled the country. Meanwhile, the Russian army is larger than it was before the invasion, and Russian industry is producing weapons and ammunition at an impressive rate.

Potential French Involvement

French President Emmanuel Macron has indicated that he might send French troops to Ukraine. However, this move could escalate the situation further, as Russia has warned that it will attack French soldiers if they are sent to Ukraine. France's belief that its nuclear arsenal could deter Russia may be misguided, as Putin has shown that he does not bluff.

The Risk of Nuclear War

The escalating situation in Ukraine is worrying, and the potential for direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Russia is a real concern. Every major simulated war game between the U.S. and Russia has ended in nuclear conflict. Are we truly prepared for such an outcome?

This article raises several thought-provoking questions about the geopolitical situation and the potential consequences of escalating tensions. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do share this article with your friends and engage in a discussion. Sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is every day at 6 pm, to stay updated on these pressing issues.