Reevaluating the Influenza Threat

Introduction

When you're next offered an influenza vaccination, I urge you to reflect on the information in this article before making your decision. We have previously shared evidence suggesting that the threat of influenza has been overstated. It appears that US authorities were aware of this exaggeration but chose to protect each other and conceal the truth. Let me share with you a story that has led me to this conclusion over the past 25 years.

Background

In the mid-90s, as the Cochrane Collaboration was emerging, some of us in its Acute Respiratory Infection Group began drafting protocols for Cochrane reviews on topics of interest. My focus was on influenza and other respiratory diseases. We produced and published reviews on the impact (both benefits and drawbacks) of influenza vaccines on various groups, including children, adults, asthmatics, the elderly, and caregivers for the elderly.

Initially, we only considered randomised controlled trials, but later included observational data under pressure. However, we quickly discarded this observational data due to its contradictory nature. Over time, I was removed from the asthmatics review, but the other four were regularly updated until we realised the futility of our efforts. Three of the reviews have since been stabilised, meaning they are no longer updated. These reviews have been cited thousands of times and have incorporated data from 105 placebo-controlled trials involving over 100,000 individuals.

Findings

So, what's the significance of all this? Well, randomised placebo-controlled trials provide a reliable estimate of the incidence of influenza. When you combine the data, you're not just looking at one trial or dataset, but several datasets recorded during the peak of the flu season.

In the review for healthy adults, the placebo group recorded 465 cases out of 18,593 participants. This means that 97.5% of the symptomatic individuals did not have influenza. No trials were able to detect deaths, and hospitalisations were relatively rare. The trials covered 50 years of data, including two influenza pandemics.

Trials allow researchers to control, verify, and follow up on cases. The incidence in the placebo group is crucial for an accurate understanding of the situation. When we started examining the verified influenza deaths in the placebo group, we found the numbers to be in the hundreds. Complications were very rare, and we found no deaths—certainly not the figures proposed by the CDC, which even Anthony Fauci didn't believe. This aligns with the data we previously shared.

So, it appears that influenza is rare, and many other agents causing similar symptoms are inaccurately labelled as "flu". Population interventions such as inactivated vaccines are ineffective against a relatively rare and constantly changing target like influenza.

Future Posts

In future posts, we will discuss how and why exaggerating the threat is crucial for unethical organisations like the CDC and the UKHSA to continue operating. We will also analyse some misleading statements and policies based on deceptive and inflated data.

This post was written by someone who has spent three decades studying this topic and hopes that the content of these posts will be his legacy.

Additional Resources

For further reading, here are some related works:

Jefferson T, Di Pietrantonj C, Debalini M G, Rivetti A, Demicheli V. Relation of study quality, concordance, take home message, funding, and impact in studies of influenza vaccines: systematic review BMJ 2009; 338 :b354

Jefferson T. Influenza vaccination: policy versus evidence BMJ 2006; 333 :912

Jefferson T, Di Pietrantonj C, Debalini MG, Rivetti A, Demicheli V. Inactivated influenza vaccines: methods, policies, and politics. J Clin Epidemiol. 2009 Jul;62(7):677-86.

Doshi P. Are US flu death figures more PR than science? BMJ. 2005 Dec 10;331(7529):1412.

Doshi P. Influenza: marketing vaccine by marketing disease BMJ 2013; 346:f3037

Bottom Line

It's time to reconsider the perceived threat of influenza. The evidence suggests that the risk has been overblown, and the effectiveness of vaccines against this relatively rare disease is questionable. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do you believe the threat of influenza has been exaggerated? Share this article with your friends and join the conversation. You can also sign up for the Daily Briefing, delivered every day at 6pm, to stay informed on this and other important topics.