Revisiting the Concept of Conscription in Modern Warfare

Revisiting Military Strategies

As military strategists reconsider the nature of modern warfare, moving away from the notion of chasing insurgents with dominant air power, they are also considering the vast manpower requirements of industrial warfare. It appears that the only viable solution to meet these requirements is to reintroduce conscription, compelling young individuals to join the ranks.

Lessons from Ukraine

The recent issue of the US Army War College's academic journal features an alarming essay on the lessons the US military should draw from the ongoing war in Ukraine. The most pertinent section for the average American citizen is titled "Casualties, Replacements, and Reconstitutions," which suggests that large-scale combat operations may necessitate a shift from the volunteer force model of the 1970s and 1980s towards partial conscription.

The Manpower Demands of Industrial Warfare

The call for conscription arises from the projection that in a large-scale conflict, the US could suffer up to 3,600 casualties and require 800 replacements daily. Over the course of twenty years in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US suffered 50,000 casualties, a figure that could be reached within two weeks of intensive large-scale combat. The military is already grappling with a significant recruiting shortfall, with the army alone falling short by 15,000 soldiers last year and projected to miss its target by an additional 20,000 this year. Moreover, the Individual Ready Reserve, comprising former service personnel who could be recalled into active service, has dropped from 700,000 in 1973 to 76,000 now.

Reevaluating Warfare Theories

Before the Ukraine war, the prevailing theory in military planning was "hybrid warfare," where large state armies clashing on the battlefield was considered outdated. Instead, theorists proposed that state conflicts would be fought through proxies and special operations, similar to the past twenty years of combat against nonstate actors in Afghanistan. However, the resurgence of industrial wars of attrition has debunked this theory.

The Implications of Conscription

The potential reintroduction of conscription is a disturbing prospect, given America's history of involvement in futile wars that result in empowering adversaries, harming soldiers, and wasting resources. The paper implies that the enemy inflicting 3,600 casualties a day would be Russia, as a war against China in the Pacific would primarily involve naval and airpower, limiting the role of the army.

No Need for a Standing Army in America

While manpower shortages may be a concern for countries like Russia, Ukraine, or Poland, the US has no compelling national interest that would necessitate engaging in an industrial war of attrition in Eastern Europe. The US is the most secure power in history, with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans acting as vast barriers and friendly neighbors. There is no risk of an industrial land war on home soil. Any war involving the army would be an expeditionary force fighting in the eastern hemisphere, where there is no compelling defensive need to do so.

Warnings Against Entangling Alliances and Standing Armies

From the inception of the US, there have been warnings against the dangers of entangling alliances and standing armies. The optimal solution to the military recruitment crisis is to abolish the standing army and avoid planning a costly and pointless war on the other side of the planet that would result in trillions of dollars wasted and countless Americans being killed, maimed, and psychologically scarred.

Bottom Line

As we delve into the complex and evolving nature of modern warfare, it's crucial to consider the potential implications of strategies such as conscription. The reintroduction of such a system could have far-reaching consequences, particularly given America's history with conflict. However, it's also essential to remember the unique position of the US, which arguably has no compelling national interest requiring a standing army. What are your thoughts on this matter? Share this article with your friends and sign up for the Daily Briefing, delivered every day at 6pm.