Russia's New Strategy in Ukraine's Kharkov Region Explained
Written by Andrew Korybko for the Korybko substack
Five Goals of Russia's Proxy Warfare with NATO
After over two years of intense proxy warfare with NATO, Russia has outlined five key objectives. This comes after Zelensky announced on Friday that Russia's long-awaited offensive had finally begun with a renewed push into the Kharkov Region. This move aligns with the Ukrainian Intelligence Committee's prediction of political-military troubles as Zelensky's term comes to an end on May 21.
Five Objectives of Russia's Strategy
The following five objectives offer insight into Russia's larger strategy in the conflict:
1. Gaining Control Over New Regions
Russia's recent gains in Donbass highlight the severity of Ukraine's conscription and logistical crises. This has allowed Moscow to push Ukraine to its limits by opening a new front. The ultimate goal is to expel Ukrainian forces from all of Russia's new regions, paving the way for further military-political achievements.
2. Demilitarizing Ukraine's Rump Regions East of the Dnieper
Russia is unlikely to claim Ukraine's rump regions east of the Dnieper due to the high cost of securing, rebuilding, and integrating them. Instead, it will likely demand their demilitarization in exchange for Kiev retaining political control.
3. Deterrence Against NATO Intervention
Russia is keen on preventing NATO's conventional intervention in the conflict. However, if member states like France or Poland do intervene, Russia hopes that its recent announcement of tactical nuclear weapons exercises will act as a deterrent.
4. Influencing Potential US-Backed Regime Change in Ukraine
Russia refuses to negotiate with Zelensky, Poroshenko, or any other Ukrainian figures on its Interior Ministry’s wanted list. With reports of the US exploring potential replacements for Zelensky, Russia aims to influence this process to ensure any new leader will abide by peace agreements.
5. Ending the Conflict in a Way that Protects Russia's Core Security Interests
Given NATO's preparation for a conventional intervention, Russia's goals of demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine and restoring its constitutional neutrality may not be fully achievable. However, Russia is likely to resort to creative military-diplomatic means to ensure its core security interests.
Conclusion
Russia's renewed push into the Kharkov Region is aimed at ending the conflict by the end of the year, though the fog of war and numerous unknown variables make this uncertain. The five objectives outlined here provide a snapshot of Russia's current strategy after over two years of intense proxy warfare with NATO.
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