September's Unexpected Events

In political circles, an October surprise is typically a tactic used to reveal or fabricate a news story just before voting takes place. This is done to catch an opponent off guard, leaving them with little time to respond or recover.

Historical October Surprises

For instance, in the 2000 election, a last-minute revelation that candidate George W. Bush had been cited for drunk driving over 25 years prior was released. This surprise may have cost Bush the popular vote. Sometimes, incumbents can use their office's powers to manipulate the election. A notable example of this was when Joe Biden benefited from leaked information about the impending Supreme Court repeal of Roe v. Wade before the 2022 midterm elections.

October Surprises in Recent Elections

In the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton's team leaked news of her purchased "Steele Dossier" as supposed proof of Trump-Russian "collusion." In 2020, Joe Biden had now Secretary of State Antony Blinken and former interim CIA Director Mike Morrell gather "51 former intelligence authorities" to claim that the incriminating Hunter Biden laptop was likely a product of a Russian intelligence "disinformation" operation. This effectively turned potential proof of Biden family corruption into a replay of the fake 2016 Trump-Russian collusion hoax.

September Surprises

However, it seems that the Harris campaign could not wait until October or early November to spring their surprises. This could be due to changes in state voting laws inspired by Democrats. In 2020, Democrat legal teams managed to change state laws to institutionalize early and mail-in voting in key states due to COVID. This reduced Election Day into a mere construct when only 30 percent of voters cast their ballots. As a result, former October surprises are now becoming earlier and more frequent preemptive "September" shocks.

Recent September Surprises

One example is the Federal Reserve Bank's decision, just 50 days before the election, to slash interest rates that had spiraled under Biden-Harris due to their hyperinflation. Another example is the Biden-Harris administration's decision to fly Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into the United States, landing first in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania. Zelensky toured a Pennsylvania munitions plant making artillery shells likely destined for his Ukraine, sending a message that providing billions of dollars in arms to Ukraine translates into jobs for voting Pennsylvanians.

Implications of September Surprises

However, these September surprises may not always have the desired effect. For instance, Donald Trump had just escaped an assassination attempt from a pro-Ukrainian gunman, which could potentially make Zelensky's visit and his comments about Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, seem more crude and insulting than cunning.

Bottom Line

In conclusion, it appears that the tradition of October surprises has evolved into earlier September surprises. However, the effectiveness of these surprises remains to be seen, as they can sometimes backfire and appear crude and insulting to voters. What are your thoughts on this topic? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss. Also, don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6 pm.