Trump Leads Harris Among Independent Voters in Recent Post-Debate Poll
Recent polls indicate that former President Donald Trump has a lead among independent voters, providing him with a crucial advantage in the ongoing race against Vice President Kamala Harris. A new Gallup poll conducted from September 3-15 shows that although both candidates have favorability ratings under 50%, Trump has a significant edge with independents.
According to the poll, Trump has a 46% favorability rating among all U.S. adults, while Harris has a 44% rating. However, both candidates have higher unfavorable views from the general electorate. Trump's unfavorable rating is seven percentage points higher than his favorable, while Harris has a 10-point deficit.
Trump's Favorability Among Independents
Despite their overall lukewarm reception, Trump has emerged as the preferred choice among independent voters. This group could play a crucial role in the upcoming election. The poll shows that 44% of independents view Trump favorably, compared to just 35% for Harris. This nine-point gap could be a significant factor, particularly in swing states and among undecided voters.
Trump's Appeal to Independent Voters
Trump's lead among independent voters could be a critical factor in his bid to reclaim the White House. His appeal to this vital voting bloc is a rare positive aspect in a political landscape where both he and Harris struggle to win over the broader public. Harris has seen her favorability slide following the initial bump she received after her nomination. In contrast, Trump has regained five points in favorability since last month, putting him back on par with his ratings from June.
Trump's favorability among independents is particularly notable given the overall trend of presidential candidates receiving less than 50% positive ratings. Since 2016, when Trump and Hillary Clinton became the least favorably viewed candidates in Gallup's history, candidates have struggled to achieve majority approval. However, the former president is currently viewed more favorably than at a similar point in both the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, indicating that he may be gaining momentum in a race where neither candidate has a clear public mandate.
Vice Presidential Candidates' Favorability
The vice presidential candidates’ favorable ratings are not as concrete as their running mates’. About one in five U.S. adults do not yet have an opinion of Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (19%) or Republican Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance (17%). While Vance’s unfavorable rating (47%) outpaces his favorable rating (36%), Walz is viewed favorably (41%) and unfavorably (40%) by roughly equal shares of Americans.
Both vice presidential candidates receive largely favorable scores from their party base -- 79% of Democrats rate Walz positively, and 74% of Republicans have a favorable view of Vance. Independents have a more favorable opinion of Walz (37%) than Vance (30%), and this group is the most likely to say they have not yet formed an opinion of the presidential candidates’ running mates.
Job Approval Ratings of Harris and Biden
The vice president’s current job approval rating matches her favorable rating, with 44% of Americans saying they approve. Last month, her approval rating was 47%. Harris’ current approval rating is 95% among Democrats, 38% among independents and 2% among Republicans.
After giving up his bid for the presidency in July, President Joe Biden enjoyed a boost in his approval rating to 43% last month -- which has slipped to 39%, not far from the 36% taken in the weeks leading up to his announcement that he would not seek reelection.
Bottom Line
Both presidential candidates continue to be viewed unfavorably by majorities of Americans. If these evaluations remain consistent through the end of the campaign, it would mark the third consecutive presidential campaign in which neither candidate garnered majority-level favorable ratings from the public. Since 1992, when one of the presidential candidates was viewed significantly more favorably than the other, the higher-rated candidate won. The current similarity between Trump’s and Harris’ favorable ratings may be a sign of a tight race.
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Trump Leads Harris Among Independent Voters in Recent Post-Debate Poll
Recent polls indicate that former President Donald Trump has a lead among independent voters, providing him with a crucial advantage in the ongoing race against Vice President Kamala Harris. A new Gallup poll conducted from September 3-15 shows that although both candidates have favorability ratings under 50%, Trump has a significant edge with independents.
According to the poll, Trump has a 46% favorability rating among all U.S. adults, while Harris has a 44% rating. However, both candidates have higher unfavorable views from the general electorate. Trump's unfavorable rating is seven percentage points higher than his favorable, while Harris has a 10-point deficit.
