Trump's Election Odds Reach 67% as Large-Scale Bet of $2M is Placed on Polymarket

Trump's Lead in Blockchain-Based Betting Market

Ex-US President Donald Trump's lead in the leading blockchain-based betting market is approaching 67% as an unidentified large-scale bettor continues to stake on his victory in the upcoming presidential election on November 5. According to data from Polymarket, Trump's chances of winning the election exceeded 66.3% on October 28.

Investment by Polymarket Whale

Trump's odds saw a rise after a large-scale bettor, known as a Polymarket whale, invested an additional $2 million in USD Coin tokens into bets favoring Trump. This unidentified bettor has invested $7.22 million on "Yes" shares, as reported by onchain intelligence firm Lookonchain. The firm noted that the whale has made an unrealized profit of $256,000 from the 11.28 million "Yes" shares on Trump winning the US election that they have bought since October 11.

Decentralized Prediction Markets

With just a week left until the 2024 US presidential election, decentralized prediction markets might provide more precise predictions than traditional polling systems, as suggested by billionaire Elon Musk. The Polymarket odds turned in favor of Trump on October 4, marking a significant shift from September. By October 12, Trump was leading by over 10 points.

Identity of the Polymarket Whale

The Polymarket whale, known as "zxgngl," holds over 11.2 million "Yes" votes worth more than $7.5 million. The increased positions come after the leading Trump bettor on Polymarket, "Fredi9999," pushed Trump's odds above 60.2% by purchasing over $20 million worth of "Yes" shares up until October 18. While 99% of zxgngl's bets were also placed on Trump, their account was funded by Binance, not Kraken. Their transaction patterns are also different, with the last two Binance deposits being worth $338,000 and $1.68 million, respectively.

US Presidential Elections Drive Growth in Prediction Market

The upcoming US elections have sparked investor interest in prediction markets. The betting volume on prediction markets saw a rise of over 565.4% in the third quarter, reaching $3.1 billion across the three largest markets. This is a significant increase from just $463.3 million in the second quarter. This substantial growth in the third quarter is primarily attributed to the US elections, as per an October 14 report by CoinGecko. Polymarket, the most significant decentralized betting platform, dominated the market with over a 99% market share as of September.

Bottom Line

The rise in Trump's odds on Polymarket and the increased betting volume on prediction markets due to the upcoming US elections are intriguing developments. It's fascinating to see how blockchain technology is being used in such a way, and it raises questions about the potential future applications of this technology. What are your thoughts on these developments? Do you think prediction markets could eventually replace traditional polling systems? Share this article with your friends and discuss it further. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.