Trump's Potential Victory in Pennsylvania
Historical Trends and Current Polling
Donald Trump is predicted to win Pennsylvania, based on past election trends. Eight years ago, Hillary Clinton was leading in Pennsylvania by more than nine points, and four years ago, Joe Biden was leading by nearly six points. However, Clinton lost Pennsylvania by less than a point, while Biden won it by more than a point.
As the Democratic National Convention approached, the Emerson/RealClearPennsylvania poll showed Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a point. When taking into account all the Pennsylvania polls conducted since Harris became the Democratic Party’s nominee, the state’s presidential race is at a standstill.
In 2016, Trump led in only two of the fifty-nine public polls released for the Pennsylvania presidential race. In 2020, Trump led in only five of the eighty-four Pennsylvania polls released. This cycle, Trump has led in thirteen of the seventeen Pennsylvania polls released.
Trump's Surprising Polling Strength
In light of previous Pennsylvania election results, current polling data suggests that Trump is on track to secure the largest margin of victory for a presidential candidate in Pennsylvania since Barack Obama’s eight-point win in 2008.
Pennsylvania voters are highly polarized, mirroring the rest of the country. The left and right's partisan mobilization ensures a close race. Harris's candidacy has sparked a previously dormant liberal base, while legal persecution and an assassination attempt on Trump have solidified voting as a cultural imperative on the right.
There's a significant shift in polling compared to previous presidential election cycles, and no single factor explains Trump’s consistent overperformance. Instead, it seems to be a combination of factors.
Factors Influencing Trump's Polling Performance
One factor could be the so-called "shy Trump voters" who are no longer afraid to express their support. These voters surprised the world in 2016 and defied 2020 polling. They are now openly supporting Trump.
Another factor could be the strength of regional biases. In northeastern Pennsylvania, Biden proudly wore his "Scranton Joe" moniker, emphasizing his birthplace and humble roots in the Commonwealth. This approach helped Biden connect with the region's swing voters in a way that Clinton could not. Now these voters are trending Republican, and Biden's absence from the ticket gives them permission to go with the GOP.
In the Philadelphia media market, which includes Delaware, daily political coverage included Biden’s senatorial career for over forty years. Philadelphia and suburban residents learned about Biden’s doings no differently than from their own senators. Biden improved on Clinton’s historic suburban margins; Harris cannot recreate this affinity.
The Role of the Economy and Voter Registration
Over 50% of Pennsylvanians rank the economy as the top issue, with Trump holding a significant lead over Harris in this regard. Meanwhile, less than 5% of voters rate abortion access as the election’s top issue. Most Pennsylvania political analysts cannot recall a time this century when a single issue so dominated voters’ priorities.
Another factor is the unprecedented shift in Pennsylvania’s voter registration. Since 2008, the 1.1 million-voter Democratic registration advantage has been reduced to about 350,000. If the trend continues, Pennsylvania will be majority Republican by 2028.
Mail-In Balloting and Trump's Polling Trend
Mail-in balloting is relatively new to Pennsylvania. Starting during the 2020 Covid lockdowns, Democratic applicants hold a nearly 3:1 advantage over Republicans. While the margin is daunting, the lack of enthusiasm for Biden’s candidacy may hold relief for Republicans.
In the 2020 presidential election, nearly 1.7 million Democrats applied for a mail-in ballot; more than half of applicants applied after the third week of August. This year, about 650,000 Democrats have applied as of last week. To meet 2020’s tally, the Democrats have a lot of work to do.
However, all these factors are overshadowed by the remarkable polling trend that Trump is experiencing in the Keystone State. The former president’s Pennsylvania polling strength and consistency may be the most underreported trend of the 2024 election cycle.
Bottom Line
The underreported trend of Trump's consistent lead in Pennsylvania polls is a significant development in the 2024 election cycle. The combination of factors leading to this trend, from the economy to voter registration shifts, paints a complex picture of the political landscape in Pennsylvania. What are your thoughts on this development? Share this article with your friends and discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.
