Ukraine's New Long-Range Weapon: More Hype Than Reality?

Introduction

The Associated Press recently reported that Ukraine is banking on a new long-range weapon, dubbed "Palianytsia", to bypass Western restrictions and strike deep into Russian territory. This announcement was made by President Zelensky during Ukraine's 33rd Independence Day celebrations. Defense Minister Umerov also expressed his support for the weapon on social media, emphasizing the need for long-range capabilities and lifting restrictions on strikes against enemy military facilities.

Palianytsia's Range

The range of Palianytsia is said to be equivalent to that of the ATACMS, which is why it has generated significant media buzz. While Ukraine asserts that the weapon is entirely homegrown, there are doubts about the absence of NATO involvement in its development. It is highly probable that Western military-technical specialists played a role in its production, potentially unbeknownst to their political leadership. The underlying objective seems to be pressuring Western powers into lifting restrictions on the use of their weapons by Ukraine.

International Reactions

Li, the Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs, hinted at this possibility when he warned that Western "super hawks" and members of the military-industrial complex are advocating for Ukraine to use their weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also voiced his concerns, accusing Zelensky of "blackmailing" the West and warning that this could be a dangerous game to play.

US Stance

Despite these developments, the US continues to prohibit Ukraine from striking targets deep within Russia, even though it has a history of eventually acceding to Kiev's demands. This hesitation is likely due to a combination of wanting to manage escalation with Russia and a pragmatic approach to military aid. The idea is to start small and exercise restraint before gradually increasing support and easing restrictions.

The Role of Palianytsia

As for the Palianytsia, while it may serve a tactical purpose if its claimed range is accurate, its primary role seems to be justifying the easing of restrictions on the use of American arms. Ukraine is trying to convince policymakers and the public that the Palianytsia has already been used without provoking an extreme reaction from Russia, and therefore, lifting ATACMS restrictions won't either.

Counterproductive Implications

However, this narrative may be counterproductive for Ukraine's soft power cause. If Ukraine can independently create long-range missiles, as it claims, then why does it need more American arms and financing? Moreover, if Ukraine is winning, as it also claims, then why is there an urgent need to lift restrictions? If Ukraine's military-industrial complex is functioning well without Western support and its invasion of Kursk has been as successful as some suggest, then there is no need to risk escalating the situation with Russia by easing restrictions.

The Real Purpose of Palianytsia

In reality, the Palianytsia seems to be more of a psychological weapon than a tactical one. Its primary role appears to be reshaping perceptions and pressuring America to lift its restrictions on using the ATACMS to strike deep inside Russian territory. However, even if it succeeds in this, it is unlikely to alter the military-strategic dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine's favor. Russia continues to gradually gain ground in Donbass, and its impending capture of Pokrovsk could lead to a series of victories in the near future.

Bottom Line

While Ukraine's new long-range weapon, Palianytsia, has generated significant hype, it appears to be more of a psychological tool than a game-changer on the battlefield. Its main purpose seems to be pressuring Western powers, particularly the US, into easing restrictions on the use of their weapons. However, even if this strategy is successful, it may not significantly alter the dynamics of the ongoing conflict with Russia. What are your thoughts on this matter? Feel free to share this article with your friends and join the discussion. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.