Ukraine Potentially Preparing to Attack or Isolate Belarus' Southeastern City of Gomel

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry recently released a statement suggesting that Kiev may be planning to invade Belarus’ Gomel Region or Russia’s Bryansk Region. The ministry cited the "threat" posed by Belarus’ military buildup along the border as a cause for concern. Belarusian President Lukashenko has previously pointed out the significant number of Ukrainian troops deployed along the border, which far exceeds the number of active soldiers in Belarus.

Ukraine's Previous Attempt to Invade Russia's Bryansk Region

A week ago, a small Ukrainian force attempted to invade a small village in Russia’s Bryansk Region, which is located just 30 kilometers from the Belarusian border. Although the attempt was unsuccessful, it could have been a probing attempt. A large-scale invasion along this front could potentially disrupt or even sever Russia’s military logistics to Belarus’ southeastern city of Gomel. This is due to the proximity of a highway running between Bryansk and Gomel, which is just 30-50 kilometers inside of Russia from the border.

Ukraine's Potential Plans for Gomel

There is speculation that Ukraine may be planning to attack Gomel or at least threaten Russia’s military logistics to the city from Bryansk. This is based on a statement from Ukraine's Foreign Ministry, which urged Belarus to cease unfriendly actions and withdraw forces away from Ukraine's border. The statement also warned that in case of a violation of Ukraine's state border by Belarus, Ukraine would take all necessary measures to exercise its right to self-defense. This could potentially make all troop concentrations, military facilities, and supply routes in Belarus legitimate targets for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Possible Scenarios

There are five potential scenarios that could unfold. The first scenario is that Ukraine does not invade either Gomel or Bryansk Regions, but instead continues to send drones across the former’s border and possibly continues to carry out small-scale raids in the second. This is the least risky scenario. The second scenario involves Ukraine provoking Belarus into initiating conventional hostilities or orchestrating a false flag to achieve the same end. This could potentially pressure the West into conventionally intervening. The third, fourth, and fifth scenarios involve Ukraine attacking Gomel, Bryansk, or both. These scenarios carry the same risks as the first one, but they could potentially worsen the conflict. However, Ukraine may see this as a necessary step to get the West to intervene in its support.

Bottom Line

While the first scenario may arguably be the best, it appears to be the least likely. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry's statement and the implied ultimatum suggest that Ukraine may be planning aggressive actions against Gomel and/or Bryansk. This situation is concerning and could potentially escalate tensions in the region. What do you think about this development? Do you think Ukraine is planning to attack Gomel and/or Bryansk? Share your thoughts and this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.