Ukraine's "Victory Plan": A Pipe Dream?
The Reality of the Situation in Ukraine
Over the past couple of years, the western media has been successful in masking the true state of affairs in Ukraine. The narrative of Russia crumbling due to poor tactics and sacrificing soldiers for meaningless territory has been debunked. The danger lies in the fact that those spreading propaganda often start believing in it themselves, leading to a rude awakening when reality finally sets in.
The Russian offensive in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine has intensified, with the crucial city of Vuhledar on the brink of falling. Their strategy of attrition and superior artillery has allowed small and fast-moving units to penetrate Ukraine's defenses. Coupled with an improved drone strategy, Russia has managed to capture several towns and cities in the past three months, with their forces closing in on the key eastern operational base of Pokrovsk. If Pokrovsk falls, the entire east of Ukraine could easily follow.
Ukraine's Manpower Crisis
One of the main reasons for Russia's rapid territorial gains is Ukraine's dwindling manpower. No amount of NATO technology or weaponry can compensate for this fundamental weakness. The harsh reality is that Ukraine is losing the war.
The western media can no longer gloss over this situation, which means that something dramatic will have to happen to tilt the war in Ukraine's favor. The Ukrainian government is scrambling to initiate a surprise strategy in preparation for the US elections in November. Ukraine's survival depends heavily on US aid, as the US is the driving force behind NATO.
The Ukrainian "Victory Plan"
The concept of a Ukrainian "Victory Plan" seems questionable given the circumstances. The strategy reportedly proposed by Vladimir Zelensky appears to be an overly optimistic wishlist that hinges heavily on an escalation between NATO and Russia. In essence, Ukraine's "victory" depends on NATO engaging in open warfare with Russia.
Although the full plan hasn't been revealed, senior U.S. officials familiar with its contents have expressed their disappointment, claiming it lacks originality and innovation. It seems that the "victory plan" is less of a plan and more of a continuation of Zelensky's lobbying campaign to keep U.S. arms flowing indefinitely.
The Dangers of the "Victory Plan"
Zelensky is determined to get permission to use US and European long-range missile systems against targets deep within Russia. However, as Vladimir Putin rightly pointed out, these systems cannot hit such targets accurately without NATO satellite intel and acquisition, meaning the missiles must be guided by US and European military technicians and assets.
The use of long-range drone strikes within Russia, likely aided by NATO intel, is one thing. But the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles far from Ukraine's front line is another matter. There's no plausible deniability for NATO involvement. The use of these weapons within Russia would be akin to a declaration of war and would trigger escalation outside of Ukraine.
Consequences of the "Victory Plan"
The consequences of such an escalation could be far-reaching. While it may not necessarily lead to the use of nuclear weapons, it could result in Russia supplying more advanced armaments to countries like China, Iran, Syria, North Korea, and even the Houthis in Yemen. This would pose a significant threat to NATO interests in Asia and the Middle East, potentially spreading the war.
So far, the Biden Administration has refrained from supporting the long-range option, but has offered another $8 billion in support. Under a Trump presidency, this financial support is likely to stop abruptly.
Zelensky's Demands
Zelensky has ruled out any practical measures for negotiations, insisting that concessions are off the table. He asserts that peace is only possible once Ukraine has regained all territory seized by Russia, including Crimea which was annexed in 2014. He further demanded that Russia pay for Ukraine's reconstruction and that Putin and numerous other Russian officials be tried for war crimes. These demands are highly unrealistic.
The Core of Ukraine's Victory Plan
The crux of Ukraine's victory plan relies on long-range strikes using NATO guided missiles and acceptance into NATO. Both factors at this stage could potentially trigger a third world war.
Ukraine's posturing could be likened to the national equivalent of "short man's syndrome." However, it's likely that Zelensky wouldn't be making such demands if he wasn't being encouraged by someone behind the scenes. Several officials within the US and Europe may have given Zelensky false hopes about his chances, possibly because they want the war to continue indefinitely. These same officials have consistently hinted that they will not accept a Ukrainian loss.
Reality Check
Regardless of personal opinions on who should win, the evidence points to Russia as the inevitable victor. While Putin's goals in the region remain unclear, it's unlikely that he plans to extend his reach beyond Ukraine. He may simply stop at the edge of the Donbas and annex the region like he did Crimea.
This could be the best case scenario for all parties involved. The longer the war continues, the higher the chances of a volatile moment and a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. Instead of talking about "victory", Ukraine should focus on peace.
Bottom Line
The situation in Ukraine is complex and fraught with danger. The proposed "Victory Plan" seems to be more of a desperate gamble than a well-thought-out strategy. Is it worth risking a third world war for a chance at victory? What are your thoughts on this matter? Share this article with your friends and discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, available every day at 6pm.
