The Unreliability of Polls: Oversampling and the 'Surge' of Kamala Harris
Since 2016, it has been highlighted that polls can be misleading due to various manipulative tactics, the most common being oversampling.
In the previous month, it was noted that the founder of the primary external spending group supporting Kamala Harris's presidential campaign stated that their internal opinion polls were not as positive as the public polls. Future Forward super PAC president, Chauncey McLean, made this statement during an event at the University of Chicago Institute of Politics.
Recent reports from the Washington Times suggest that some pollsters are raising concerns about Vice President Kamala Harris's supposed 'surge' in the polls. Harris took the lead after replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee on July 21. Since then, she has been leading Trump nationally by nearly 2 percentage points and is either leading or tied with him in all seven battleground states. However, Republican analysts argue that these poll numbers may not accurately reflect voter sentiment due to biased polling methodology.
Examples of Polling Bias
Critics argue that many polls have been sampling a disproportionately smaller share of Republican voters compared to exit poll data from the 2020 presidential election. They believe this results in a misleading "phantom advantage" for Ms. Harris. According to them, this skewed sampling could be a strategic move to boost enthusiasm and fundraising for Ms. Harris' campaign.
Trump campaign strategist Jim McLaughlin shared this view, stating that Republicans are intentionally undersampled to suppress support and donations for Trump. He added that the polls are part of a larger effort to create a narrative that favors Harris.
Trump has openly criticized the poll results, dismissing them as "fake news" during a rally in Michigan.
Impact of Poll Results on Campaigns
Harris’ recent poll numbers have indeed helped fuel excitement among her supporters. Her campaign announced a $540 million fundraising haul in July, more than four times what Mr. Trump raised in the same period. Still, the growing skepticism over the legitimacy of the polls has prompted some to question whether the surge in support is as real as it appears.
Recent polls that show a Harris lead, such as the Suffolk University/USA Today poll, included more respondents identifying as Democrats (37.1%) than Republicans (33.8%). The poll found Ms. Harris leading Trump by 5 percentage points, a significant turnaround from earlier in the year when Trump was ahead by 4 points vs. Biden. Similarly, a Yahoo News/YouGov poll released on August 27 found Ms. Harris ahead of Mr. Trump by 1 percentage point, with Democrats making up 33% of respondents compared to only 29% for Republicans.
Discrepancy in Party Sampling
The discrepancy in party sampling is causing concern among poll watchers. Data from the 2020 exit polls showed a nearly equal split, with 36% identifying as Republican and 37% as Democrat. Yet, recent polls seem to favor Democrats disproportionately, leading to claims of deliberate skewing.
Mr. Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, has argued that these polls are designed to suppress support for Mr. Trump. In a memo, he stated, “Once again, we see a series of public surveys released with the clear intent and purpose of depressing support for President Trump.”
However, pollsters like Don Levy of the New York Times/Siena Poll argue that these claims lack substance. They argue that any gaps between recalled 2020 vote and actual 2020 results are not evidence of intentional bias but may reflect the complexity of polling dynamics, including response bias where Democrats are more likely to participate in polls.
Controversy Surrounding the Polls
Despite these defenses, the controversy surrounding these polls has left many wondering about the true state of the race. Polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight shows Ms. Harris' approval rating ticking up to 42.3%, up from 37.1% in early July. Yet, doubts persist over how she has managed to rise in the polls without significantly improving her historically low job approval ratings.
Bottom Line
The controversy surrounding the reliability of polls and the alleged oversampling of certain demographics raises important questions about the true state of the political race. It prompts a reflection on the role and impact of polls on public sentiment and campaign strategies. What are your thoughts on this issue? Do you believe the polls accurately reflect the political landscape? Share this article with your friends and join the conversation. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.
The Unreliability of Polls: Oversampling and the 'Surge' of Kamala Harris
Since 2016, it has been highlighted that polls can be misleading due to various manipulative tactics, the most common being oversampling.
In the previous month, it was noted that the founder of the primary external spending group supporting Kamala Harris's presidential campaign stated that their internal opinion polls were not as positive as the public polls. Future Forward super PAC president, Chauncey McLean, made this statement during an event at the University of Chicago Institute of Politics.
Recent reports from the Washington Times suggest that some pollsters are raising concerns about Vice President Kamala Harris's supposed 'surge' in the polls. Harris took the lead after replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee on July 21. Since then, she has been leading Trump nationally by nearly 2 percentage points and is either leading or tied with him in all seven battleground states. However, Republican analysts argue that these poll numbers may not accurately reflect voter sentiment due to biased polling methodology.
