US Now More Reliant on Fossil Fuels than China

Increased Use of Natural Gas

The United States has become more reliant on fossil fuels for its electricity supply this year than China, the world's largest carbon emitter, due to an increase in the use of natural gas for power generation. Since June 2024, the high electricity demand during the US summer has been primarily met by an increase in gas-fired power generation. Meanwhile, in China, a resurgence in hydropower has somewhat limited the proportion of coal in its electricity supply.

Comparison of Fossil Fuel Share

Consequently, since June, fossil fuels, including natural gas and coal, have averaged a 62.4% share of total electricity output in the United States. This is in contrast to a lower fossil fuel share in China's coal-dominated power system, where fossil fuels made up 60.5% of generation between June and September, according to data from energy think tank Ember, as reported by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.

Potential Impact on US Carbon Goals

The increase in natural gas power output could potentially hinder the US's current objectives of making the grid carbon-neutral by 2035. Power generation from natural gas in the US surged by 20% in the first nine months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2019. The proportion of gas in the power supply has risen to 43% from 38% five years ago.

Rising Power Demand

In recent years, power demand in the United States, which is primarily met by gas-fired power plants, has skyrocketed and is anticipated to continue to surge with increasing electrification and the need for more electricity to power and cool data centers. US power-generating companies are announcing plans for the highest volume of new natural gas-fired capacity in years, driven by the demand for electricity due to the AI boom.

New Gas-Powered Capacity

In the first half of 2024, electricity-generating firms revealed plans for new gas-powered capacity equal to all capacity announced in 2020, according to data from Sierra Club cited by Bloomberg last month. Year-to-date, natural gas-fired electricity generation in the United States has increased compared to the same period last year, as total power demand rose with warmer temperatures and demand from data centers.

Bottom Line

It's clear that the United States' dependence on fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, has increased significantly. This trend could potentially impede the country's goal of achieving a zero-carbon grid by 2035. It raises the question of how the US will balance its growing electricity needs with its environmental commitments. What are your thoughts on this issue? Share this article with your friends and discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.