US Intelligence Highlights China's Rapid Nuclear Arsenal Expansion
The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) released a new public intelligence estimate titled "Nuclear Challenges 2024" on Wednesday. This comprehensive 194-page document provides an overview of the main nuclear-armed powers and rivals of the United States. It particularly focuses on nations with "mature nuclear weapons programs" that are either expanding their stockpiles or modernizing their existing ones by incorporating advanced technologies to bypass or evade missile defense systems, such as North Korea.
Emerging Nuclear Weapon Trends
The DIA report indicates that countries are developing nuclear weapons with smaller yields, enhanced precision, and extended range for military or coercive use. However, China's program has been highlighted as the most significant in the DIA report. The intelligence agency assesses that under President Xi, China is experiencing a massive and rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal, the largest in its history, assuming the projection is accurate.
China's Nuclear Arsenal Expansion
The "Nuclear Challenges 2024" report estimates that China is on track to possess more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030. It suggests that this accelerated growth is primarily driven by China's strategic competition with the United States.
The DIA provides a summary of China's nuclear arsenal plans and expansion. It states that Beijing has far exceeded the growth estimates assessed in 2018 and currently has over 500 deliverable nuclear warheads in its stockpile. By 2030, China is expected to have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads, most of which will be deployed on systems capable of reaching the continental United States. China is also likely seeking lower-yield nuclear warhead capabilities to provide proportional response options that its high-yield warheads cannot deliver.
Global Nuclear Stockpile Situation
As of mid-year, there are estimated to be 9,585 nuclear warheads in military stockpiles for potential use across nine countries, with Russia and the U.S. accounting for 8,088 of these. An additional 2,536 retired warheads are yet to be dismantled. China has added 90 nuclear warheads to its arsenal since January 2023, increasing from 410 warheads to 500. India and North Korea have also expanded their arsenals, bringing their total figures to an estimated 170 warheads and 50 warheads, respectively. The two European nuclear powers, France and the UK, together have 515 operational nuclear warheads. Except for North Korea, none of the nations possessing nuclear warheads have tested them since the 1990s.
Bottom Line
The rapid expansion of China's nuclear arsenal, as highlighted in the DIA's report, raises several questions about global security and the future of nuclear disarmament. This development could potentially reshape the balance of power and provoke a new arms race. What are your thoughts on this issue? Share this article with your friends and discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.
