US Played Unintentional Role in Sino-Indian Border De-Escalation Agreement
Earlier this week, India revealed that it and China have agreed to patrol their disputed border area as they did prior to the deadly clashes in the Galwan River Valley in June 2020. This development was made possible by China finally agreeing to India's long-standing request, setting the stage for their leaders to hold a bilateral meeting at this week's BRICS Summit in Kazan. Interestingly, it appears that the US played an unintentional role in facilitating this agreement.
The Turning Point in US-India Relations
A scandal in the summer of 2023, involving an alleged Indian assassination attempt on a Delhi-designated terrorist-separatist with dual American citizenship on US soil, marked a turning point in US-India relations. The US continued to play a dual role against India, even pushing Canada to escalate its own dispute with India earlier this month. This, along with other developments, led to a noticeable souring of Indo-US ties.
Impact on Sino-Indian Border Talks
Despite multiple rounds of talks since 2020, no breakthrough had been reached on the Sino-Indian border dispute until the relationship between India and the US became characterized by distrust. China recognized that the previous level of trust between the US and India would not be restored, easing its concerns about India playing a key role in US containment policy. This change in perception led China to rethink its informal policy on the border dispute.
China's Shift in Perception
Previously, China had been hesitant to return to the status quo ante bellum, fearing that it could be seen as a unilateral concession signaling weakness and potentially damaging its position in the South China Sea. However, the significant deterioration in Indo-US ties led China to view returning to the status quo as a pragmatic way to manage concerns about India's role in US containment efforts. This could potentially limit the future improvement of Indo-US relations.
Improvement of Sino-Indo Relations
By finally agreeing to India's long-standing request to resolve their post-Galwan tensions, China has put their partnership back on track amidst the dramatic downturn in Indo-US ties. This could prevent India from participating in the US' containment scheme. If this issue is resolved and India no longer perceives China as a threat, there may be no improvement in Indo-US ties at the expense of Sino-US ones.
Economic Complementarities of China and India
China and India have natural economic complementarities. If these two largest countries in the world can resolve their territorial issues and restore mutual trust, global affairs could begin to revolve around them. However, the US has sought to divide them through information warfare and its "triangulation" policy, a strategy that failed after it put too much pressure on India over the summer 2023 scandal.
US Pressure on India
The US has never treated India as an equal partner, but rather sought to subjugate it by demanding compliance with Western sanctions against Russia. This was unacceptable to India for both economic and principled reasons. The US also feared India's rise as a Great Power, fueled to a large extent by discounted Russian energy, which accelerated multipolar processes to the detriment of its unipolar hegemony.
India's Response to US Pressure
India was pleased when China decided to comply with its request to resolve their post-Galwan tensions and get bilateral ties back on track. This showed the US that India will not become its vassal. India also demonstrated its ability to accelerate multipolar processes to the detriment of US hegemony as a form of retaliation for being mistreated.
Future of Sino-Indo Relations
Even if the US changes its approach, the trust that once characterized US-India relations before the summer 2023 scandal will never return. This rules out the possibility that India will contain China in coordination with the US in the future. Especially after China removed the main irritant in their relations over the past four years, which had been driving the military dimension of Indo-US ties and led China to suspect that India was trying to contain it with the US.
Global Impact of Improved Sino-Indo Relations
If the budding Sino-Indo rapprochement continues, the US' pressure campaign against India might be seen as a game-changer due to how it could reshape the global systemic transition's strategic dynamics. A significant improvement in Sino-Indo relations could bring them closer to unlocking their full mutual potential. If successful, this would revolutionize international relations and could hasten the end of US unipolar hegemony.
Bottom Line
The recent de-escalation agreement between India and China marks a significant turning point in their relations, with the US playing an unintentional role in facilitating this development. The potential for improved Sino-Indo relations could have far-reaching implications for global affairs, particularly in terms of shifting the balance of power away from US unipolar hegemony. But what do you think about this development? Share your thoughts with your friends and consider signing up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
