US-Ukraine Security Pact: A Substitute for NATO Membership

A New Security Pact

Ukrainian President Zelensky recently celebrated a new security pact with the United States, describing it as a significant step towards a true alliance. However, the pact is essentially a consolation prize for Ukraine's unfulfilled aspiration to join NATO, which would have offered more substantial mutual defense commitments. The pact formalizes the support the US has been providing Ukraine since February 2022. However, it does not obligate the US to send troops to Ukraine in the event of renewed hostilities with Russia.

Ukraine's Role in NATO

Ukraine's role as NATO's anti-Russian proxy is maintained by the new pact. If Ukraine were to become an official military ally, the US would be under more pressure to directly aid Ukraine, which is why Russia has always been against Ukraine's NATO membership. The first such agreement between Ukraine and the UK in mid-January set the precedent for subsequent pacts, including the latest one with the US. The US prefers to keep Ukraine out of NATO, seeing more strategic value in Ukraine as an anti-Russian proxy than as a military ally.

US and Russia's Stance on Ukraine's NATO Membership

Both the US and Russia prefer Ukraine to stay out of NATO, albeit for different reasons. The US wants to continue militarizing Ukraine to wage NATO's proxy war against Russia, while Russia aims to demilitarize Ukraine to eliminate threats to its security. This friction between the two nations' goals is fueling the ongoing conflict. Neither side can fully achieve their objectives, nor do they want to limit them, resulting in a protracted conflict.

Potential Ceasefire Agreement

A ceasefire agreement could potentially be reached if NATO forces remain west of the Dnieper River, and Ukraine withdraws its heavy weaponry to demilitarize the eastern bank. Russia might see the creation of a massive buffer zone as an acceptable compromise. The US' recent security deal with Ukraine increases the pressure on the US to prevent Russia from inflicting a strategic defeat on NATO through Ukraine.

The Risk of World War III

There is a risk that World War III could break out due to miscalculations during the partition phase of this scenario. A neutral third party, such as India, could help coordinate the intervention of NATO up to the Dnieper River, Russia's restraint, and Ukraine's withdrawal of heavy weaponry. However, best-case scenarios rarely transpire, and the sequence of events mentioned above would likely play out ad hoc, with a select group of countries individually working to convey each side's red lines to the other to control mutual escalations.

Conclusion

The US' security pact with Ukraine, while a consolation for not approving its NATO membership, paradoxically increases the possibility that Ukraine will become a de facto NATO member. The US would be more pressured than ever to approve a conventional NATO intervention if Russia achieves a breakthrough, risking all of Ukraine coming under NATO's control. By formalizing the US' existing support for Ukraine, the US raises its reputational stakes in the conflict to the point where it couldn't accept Russia inflicting a strategic defeat on it by fully demilitarizing Ukraine. This could escalate everything towards uncertain ends that can either result in a ceasefire or World War III.

What's Your Take?

This article offers a deep dive into the complex dynamics of the US-Ukraine security pact and its implications for NATO, Russia, and the ongoing conflict. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do you think the new pact will bring stability or escalate tensions? Share this article with your friends to get their insights. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, delivered every day at 6pm.