Uzbekistan Capitalizes on Russia's Need for Allies, Securing Discounted Gas
Russian Prime Minister's Visit to Uzbekistan
The primary objective of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin's visit to Uzbekistan was to strengthen ties and advocate for Uzbekistan's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). However, Uzbekistan remained cautious, focusing on its strategic partnership with Russia but avoiding commitments on EAEU membership or specific joint ventures. The visit resulted in minor agreements on rail transport, medicinal product labeling, and medical personnel training, with a protocol signed for the construction of nuclear reactors in Uzbekistan.
Uzbekistan's Diplomatic Balancing Act
Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states have been careful to maintain a neutral stance since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. They have managed to avoid provoking Russian leader Vladimir Putin into taking punitive action while also acting as a trade conduit to soften the impact of Western sanctions on Russia.
Russia's Interest in Uzbekistan's EAEU Membership
Mishustin's visit to Uzbekistan on September 9 was aimed at securing Tashkent’s commitment to becoming a full member of the EAEU. According to unnamed experts, the primary reason for Moscow's interest in Uzbekistan's membership is the country's large and rapidly growing population, which could help Russia secure a stable economic future amidst its own demographic crisis.
Joint Ventures and Proposals
During the joint commission meeting, Mishustin also expressed interest in developing a venture to produce drones for civilian uses. However, Uzbek officials gave no indication that they would comply with Moscow’s proposals. The outcome of the joint commission meeting was modest, with few concrete results.
Agreements and Developments
Three minor agreements were signed at the conclusion of the commission session, including one on accelerating the rail transport of agricultural products, another on standardized labeling of medicinal products, and a protocol on the training of medical personnel. A significant development was the signing of a protocol concerning the implementation of an agreement signed in May, under which Russia pledged to construct up to six low-power nuclear reactors to generate electricity in Uzbekistan.
Energy Cooperation and Benefits for Uzbekistan
Mishustin expressed satisfaction with the bilateral energy cooperation, including the supply of natural gas, oil, and petroleum products from Russia to Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan, which is buying Russian natural gas at a significantly lower rate than other countries, has no reason to dispute this point. The low purchase price of Russian gas is enabling Uzbek leaders to offer domestic customers highly subsidized rates for gas consumption.
Bottom Line
The visit of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to Uzbekistan underlines the complex dynamics of geopolitical leverage. While Russia seeks to strengthen its alliances and expand its influence through the EAEU, countries like Uzbekistan are carefully navigating these overtures, balancing their strategic partnerships with their own national interests. This delicate diplomatic dance has implications for regional stability, economic development, and global power dynamics. What are your thoughts on this issue? Feel free to share this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, delivered every day at 6pm.
