Wall Street Reveals Startling Economic Fact: All Job Growth in the Past Year Benefited Illegal Immigrants

Throughout the past year, we have consistently highlighted two alarming realities. Firstly, the U.S. labor market has been disappointingly weak, with most of the jobs "created" in 2023, which were supposed to indicate the strength of Biden's "recovery", are likely to be revised away. This is a fact now acknowledged by both the Philly Fed and Bloomberg. Secondly, and even more startling, is that all job growth in recent years has been absorbed by illegal immigrants.

Zero Job Growth for Native-Born Workers

We first drew attention to this over a year ago, and have since reiterated this fact numerous times. Despite our efforts to make this clear, it seems to have been largely ignored. A shocking statistic reveals that there has been no increase in jobs for native-born workers in over five years, since July 2018. We have also highlighted the specific immigration loophole that illegal immigrants are exploiting to work in the U.S. for up to five years. This loophole allows an illegal immigrant in deportation proceedings, or anyone seeking asylum, to obtain authorization to work in the U.S. for up to five years, without any questions asked.

Fact-Checking the White House

We have also fact-checked the White House on multiple occasions, pointing out that prices have never been higher and are starting to accelerate again. All the jobs created in the past year have been part-time, and there has been zero job growth for native-born Americans since 2018; all jobs have gone to immigrants, mostly illegal ones. Despite these facts, the issue of most, if not all, U.S. jobs going to illegal immigrants has not become "the biggest political talking point" of all.

Change is Coming

However, this is about to change. With just under five months left until the election, and immigration being the hottest political topic, others are starting to recognize the patterns we highlighted over a year ago. The first Wall Street analyst to acknowledge that the employment situation is not as it seems is Standard Chartered's global head of macro, Steve Englander. In a note titled "Immigration leading to labor-market surge", Englander estimates that "undocumented immigrants account for half of job growth in FY24 so far". He adds that "asylum seekers and humanitarian parolees explain the surge in undocumented immigrants" and concludes that the continued rise in EAD approvals will likely extend strong employment growth in 2024.

Job Growth for American Citizens: A Myth

In other words, "strong employment growth" for American citizens is a myth. The only job growth in the U.S. is for illegal immigrants, who are willing to work for below minimum wage. This also explains why inflation hasn't spiked in the past year as millions of illegal immigrants were hired. Englander's note is a must-read for economists, strategists, and politicians, as it echoes what we have been saying for over a year. Immigration, particularly illegal immigration, has become a crucial factor in assessing economic performance. Detailed data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) suggest that half of non-farm payroll (NFP) growth to date for FY24 has come from undocumented immigrants who have received an Employment Authorization Document (EAD).

Impact on the Labor Market

This means that the labor market in the U.S. has been a disaster for the past year, signaling impending economic catastrophe. The political reason behind the misrepresentation of the U.S. jobs market is simple: in an election year, it is crucial to portray the economy as positively as possible, even if it involves distorting the truth. However, the cascading consequences from this fabrication are staggering.

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, it seems unlikely that the contribution of undocumented immigrants to employment will change anytime soon. Over the last 12 months, an average of 280k undocumented immigrants per month have been encountered nationally, most of whom can or will be eligible to work legally in the coming months. The same methodology suggests that these workers contributed about one-third of FY23 employment growth.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, when stripping away the 100K in statistical "jobs" from the 230K monthly payroll number, and then removing the 109K in illegal alien workers, the number of jobs added by ordinary, legal, native-born, Americans in the past year has been - more or less - zero. What are your thoughts on this alarming revelation about the U.S. job market? Share your views and discuss this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.