Week Ahead: Payrolls, Powell, JOLTS, and Fed Speakers
As we approach the end of the month, it's time to look forward to a busy week filled with significant events such as a speech by Powell today and payrolls on Friday. The flash CPIs from Germany and Italy today, and the Eurozone tomorrow, will also be crucial, especially in light of the weak numbers from France and Spain last Friday. This could potentially tip the scales in favor of an October ECB cut. The global reaction to China's stimulus blitz last week will also be a focal point, even though their golden week holiday begins tomorrow and domestic markets will not be open during this period.
Detailed Look at the Events of the Week
Economists predict that the headline (146k forecast vs. 142k previously) and private (125k vs. 118k) payrolls will be slightly ahead of the 3-month averages of 116k and 96k, respectively. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, even with a minor increase in participation (to 62.72%). Other employment indicators this week include the ISM surveys, ADP, claims, and JOLTS tomorrow. The JOLTS report has traditionally had one of the most reliable longer-term correlations to the prevailing employment trends but is always a month behind.
The risk of increased layoffs and disruption in the current labor market is why the FOMC recently initiated a 50bps cut. Powell's speech today (just after 1pm ET) will likely adhere to his FOMC script, but it's fair to say that Fedspeak since the meeting has been more open to additional 50bps cuts than anticipated.
In Europe, today's German and Italian CPI will be particularly important given the weak numbers from France and Spain last Friday. If these trends continue, it could force the ECB to either lean towards 25bps next month or 50bps in December instead of 25bps.
As a reminder, most companies are now in a buyback blackout period ahead of the start of earnings season in October.
Looking at the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are the JOLTS job openings report and ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week including Chair Powell on Monday. The U.S. vice presidential debate is scheduled to take place at 9pm on Tuesday.
Bottom Line
This week promises to be filled with significant events that could potentially impact global markets. From payrolls and Powell's speech to the JOLTS report and Fed speakers, investors and market watchers will have plenty to keep an eye on. What are your thoughts on these upcoming events? Do you think they will have a significant impact on the markets? Share this article with your friends and let them know what's happening in the world of finance. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
Week Ahead: Payrolls, Powell, JOLTS, and Fed Speakers
As we approach the end of the month, it's time to look forward to a busy week filled with significant events such as a speech by Powell today and payrolls on Friday. The flash CPIs from Germany and Italy today, and the Eurozone tomorrow, will also be crucial, especially in light of the weak numbers from France and Spain last Friday. This could potentially tip the scales in favor of an October ECB cut. The global reaction to China's stimulus blitz last week will also be a focal point, even though their golden week holiday begins tomorrow and domestic markets will not be open during this period.
Detailed Look at the Events of the Week
Economists predict that the headline (146k forecast vs. 142k previously) and private (125k vs. 118k) payrolls will be slightly ahead of the 3-month averages of 116k and 96k, respectively. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, even with a minor increase in participation (to 62.72%). Other employment indicators this week include the ISM surveys, ADP, claims, and JOLTS tomorrow. The JOLTS report has traditionally had one of the most reliable longer-term correlations to the prevailing employment trends but is always a month behind.
The risk of increased layoffs and disruption in the current labor market is why the FOMC recently initiated a 50bps cut. Powell's speech today (just after 1pm ET) will likely adhere to his FOMC script, but it's fair to say that Fedspeak since the meeting has been more open to additional 50bps cuts than anticipated.
In Europe, today's German and Italian CPI will be particularly important given the weak numbers from France and Spain last Friday. If these trends continue, it could force the ECB to either lean towards 25bps next month or 50bps in December instead of 25bps.
As a reminder, most companies are now in a buyback blackout period ahead of the start of earnings season in October.
Looking at the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are the JOLTS job openings report and ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week including Chair Powell on Monday. The U.S. vice presidential debate is scheduled to take place at 9pm on Tuesday.
Bottom Line
This week promises to be filled with significant events that could potentially impact global markets. From payrolls and Powell's speech to the JOLTS report and Fed speakers, investors and market watchers will have plenty to keep an eye on. What are your thoughts on these upcoming events? Do you think they will have a significant impact on the markets? Share this article with your friends and let them know what's happening in the world of finance. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
