Young and Black Voters Drift Away from Biden: A Visual Explanation

Demographics and Unemployment

James Carville, a Democratic strategist, famously said in 1972, "It's the economy, stupid." This statement remains relevant today, as recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveals. Two images succinctly illustrate the political landscape leading up to the 2024 elections.

The unemployment rates across different age groups show a worrying trend. The overall unemployment rate has increased from 3.4 to 4.1. The rate for the 16-19 age group has risen from 9.3 to 12.3, while the 20-24 age group has seen an increase from 5.4 to 7.9. The rates for these age groups hit their lowest in April 2023 and have been rising since then. This data indicates that young voters are particularly affected by the current economic situation.

Unemployment and Race

The unemployment rate among black individuals has seen a significant increase, rising from 4.8 percent to 6.1 percent. The rate for white individuals has also increased, going from 3.0 percent to 3.5 percent. Hispanics have seen their unemployment rate jump from 4.1 percent to 5.0 percent. These statistics have been a topic of concern for some time, with mainstream media only recently highlighting the issue.

The Two Americas

Recent economic data paints a picture of two Americas. The Wall Street Journal reports that while the rich are feeling confident, lower-income households are growing cautious. This growing disconnect between the fortunes of upper- and lower-income Americans could account for some of the crossed signals in the economy.

The U.S. added 272,000 jobs in May, up from 165,000 in April, surpassing economists’ expectations. This strong reading is perplexing, especially considering the string of weak economic reports in recent weeks, including soft income and spending data for April and a lower-than-expected reading on manufacturing sentiment in May.

Home Prices and Rent

Home prices are soaring out of sight, making it difficult for those looking to buy a home. This is particularly true for young voters and black individuals. On the other hand, rent prices have been rising steadily for 32 consecutive months, further burdening those who cannot afford to buy a home.

Adding insult to injury, unemployment rates for younger voters and black individuals have increased significantly. Despite this, Trump is still ahead in the polls, even after being convicted of a felony.

Jobs Report

The May jobs report showed a rise in payrolls by 272,000, but a drop in employment by 408,000. Over the last year, jobs have increased by 2.8 million, while full-time employment has decreased by 1.2 million. The discrepancy between the trend in jobs and employment continues to grow.

However, it's unlikely that there will be any economic improvements for young voters and black individuals, even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates. In fact, a Fed rate cut would be a sign of a weakening economy, which would likely benefit Trump, not Biden.

Final Thoughts

This article presents a thought-provoking look at the current political and economic landscape in the United States. It raises important questions about the impact of economic trends on different demographics and their political leanings. What are your thoughts on this matter? Feel free to share this article with your friends and engage in a discussion. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.