Understanding the Concept of Adaptation
During periods of stability, when little changes, the ability to adapt is not as crucial. However, when the environment changes rapidly, and the existing instructions are failing, adaptation becomes a matter of survival. This is the "adapt or die" moment, when species must experiment with modifications and test them in trial-and-error. The ones that add selective advantages live, while the ones that don't, perish.
The Role of Human Civilization
Human civilization operates on the same principles of adaptation. When circumstances change, selective pressures mount, and society must adapt or perish. However, humans have the ability to stifle or encourage adaptive changes. Those at the top of the power pyramid will naturally deploy all their power to conserve the status quo, as any modifications might threaten their outsized share of wealth and status.
The View from the Top
From the top of the pyramid, the view is rather grand. Those at the top see the vastness of the imperial reach, the army's strength, the peasantry toiling away, and the obsequious bureaucrats bowing and scraping. The idea that all this immense structure could decay and blow away is incomprehensible. There is little sense that the extinction of the entire social order is a threat. The threat is more personal: is my private fiefdom at risk of being diminished? Are rivals gaining influence? Are the reforms being proposed positive for my fortunes or could they pose a threat?
The Need for Urgent Reforms
The overlapping crises (a.k.a. polycrisis) favor short-term expediency over more radical long-term modifications. The Powers That Be have a grip on expedient "stave off the immediate crisis" measures such as imposing curfews, lowering interest rates, and increasing the pay of soldiers, but these measures are slapdash rather than part of a recognition that radical changes in the structure of the society must be organized now, not later, for later will be too late.
The Irony of Competence Atrophy
There is an irony in this atrophy of competence: the longer the good times roll, the less experience anyone has of polycrisis. In the competitive churn at the top of the pyramid, the skills that are most valuable in periods of stability are those of bureaucratic in-fighting and maintaining the status quo. Since there is no selective pressure demanding radical changes to survive, the skills needed to manage such a radical transition are no longer present.
The Delusion of Hubris
The focus is not on managing a desperately needed radical transformation but on managing the narrative so it looks as if the crises are under control, and the status quo is functioning as intended. This is, of course, a hubristic delusion. But since events are accelerating and interacting in ways far beyond the grasp of the under-competent leaders, the focus remains on maintaining the illusion of control.
The Strategy of Decay
Decay is a perfectly adequate strategy if there's sufficient resources to keep everything glued together as it slowly unravels. Each crisis reveals another layer of under-competence and dry-rotted foundations, and each one is dutifully papered over. Those few who grasp the crisis in its entirety have been marginalized, and those who are left are drifting downstream, unable to move the mass of self-interested inertia even if they wanted to.
The Disruption of Polycrisis
Polycrisis has a way of disrupting decay. If conditions remain stable, decay can be managed. But if volatility soars and multiple crises arise and reinforce each other, decay accelerates into collapse. The ability to discern an existential challenge before it's too late is rare and unrewarded.
Bottom Line
The concept of adaptation and the need for radical changes in times of crisis is an intriguing topic. It raises questions about the ability of those in power to recognize and act upon the need for change, and the consequences of failing to do so. What do you think about this perspective? Do you believe society is capable of radical change when faced with existential threats? Share this article with your friends and join the conversation. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing which is every day at 6pm.
