Conrad Black's Perspective on Ending the Ukraine War

Continued Conflict in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine continues without any clear end in sight, as neither side seems capable of achieving a decisive victory. Ukraine hopes to oust Russia from its territory, including Crimea, while Russia aims to reincorporate Ukraine, a territory it held for 300 years. This ongoing conflict is rooted in the complex history of the two nations, which has resulted in deep-seated grievances on both sides.

Russian and Ukrainian Historical Perspectives

According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine was never a distinct country but a contested region where Poles, Lithuanians, Russians, and Tatars vied for control. The Russian capital was first established in Kiev before Russia had any connections with Western Europe. Ukraine was not recognized as a jurisdiction until Lenin declared it a Soviet Socialist Republic in 1919. Under Stalin’s rule, Ukraine suffered greatly, with millions of independent Ukrainian farmers being starved or massacred in the drive to collectivize agriculture. This brutality led many Ukrainians to welcome the German invasion of 1941, with a significant number fighting against the Soviet Union in the German army.

Ukraine's Independence and Russia's Claims

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine, like other Soviet republics, declared its independence. However, Russia, which had exercised sovereignty over these territories for centuries, considered them to be the "near abroad," meaning their sovereignty was not fully recognized. The fact that approximately 17% of Ukrainians primarily speak Russian is another reason Russia claims a stake in Ukraine.

Recent Tensions and Conflict

In 2010, a pro-Russian government led by Viktor Yanukovych was elected in Ukraine. This government reversed Ukraine's rapprochement with the European Union, leading to mass protests partially sponsored by the West. This unrest led to the removal of Yanukovych, Russia's annexation of Crimea, and skirmishes along the eastern border. Putin's ambition to expand Russia's influence in Europe, combined with perceived Western weakness, led to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Western Response and Ukraine's Defense

Despite initial expectations that Russia would quickly seize control of Ukraine, the Ukrainian resistance, heavily subsidized by the West, has been strong. Over the years, NATO countries, including Canada, have trained 500,000 Ukrainians to defend their country. The Western alliance has provided comprehensive military support, short of committing NATO forces, effectively funding Ukraine's defense while Ukrainians bear the casualties.

Possible Terms for Ending the War

The potential terms for ending the war have been clear for some time: a ceasefire, Russia's expansion to include areas it has occupied in Ukraine, and the recognition of Ukraine's revised borders as a sovereign state eligible for EU and NATO membership. However, the U.S. has not been pushing for this resolution. The Ukrainian government is prepared to continue the fight, with the U.S. supporting it to the last Ukrainian.

Post-War Considerations

Aside from preserving Ukraine and its independence, the goal is to create conditions where Russia can be gradually drawn away from China. A close alliance between these two countries could pose a strategic threat and effectively end Russia's independence. A non-aggression agreement between Russia and NATO could be established after a year of peace, with Ukrainians given the option to move to Russia or stay within Ukraine's revised borders.

Waiting for the U.S. Election

The conclusion of the war is likely to be influenced by the upcoming U.S. election, which will effectively determine the terms of the peace agreement.

Bottom Line

This article provides a detailed analysis of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, its historical roots, and potential solutions. The situation is complex, with deep-seated grievances and geopolitical considerations influencing the actions of all parties involved. What are your thoughts on this issue? Do you agree with the proposed solutions? Share this article with your friends and engage in a meaningful discussion. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.