Is This What Democrats Plan to Do If Trump Wins?
Election Headed for Photo Finish
It's unbelievable, but the election is now less than a month away. The current state of the race is a topic worth discussing. Polls are a key tool in analyzing and predicting elections, despite their many flaws. They provide a snapshot of the current state of the race, but they don't necessarily predict the final outcome.
A recent analysis of polling methodology revealed several flaws, including polling "registered voters" instead of "likely voters" and using sample sizes that are too small. Also, skewing samples to include too many Democrats and Black voters can produce results favoring Democrats. There are ways to adjust for these flaws, but they're not perfect. The simplest way is to assume that Trump is doing one to two points better than published results once the skews and error margins are removed.
This is good news for Trump, but it still indicates an incredibly tight race. The latest results from the RealClearPolitics poll of polls average show the following:
National: Harris +2.1
Georgia: Trump +1.5
North Carolina: Trump +0.6
Pennsylvania: Tied
Arizona: Trump +1.4
Wisconsin: Harris +0.8
Michigan: Harris +0.7
Nevada: Harris +1.1
There are a few other states that are not generally regarded as battleground states but are close enough that they could offer some surprises on Election Day. These include Virginia (Harris +6.4), Minnesota (Harris +4.7), and New Hampshire (Harris +7.4). If Trump were to score an upset victory in any of these three states, it could partly compensate for the loss of one or more of the battlegrounds.
The Race to 270
Political analysts often talk about the "path to victory", which is defined as achieving 270 or more electoral votes. There are a total of 538 electoral votes available from the 50 states and D.C. A tally of 270 electoral votes is a bare majority of the total and that’s enough to win the White House.
For each candidate, the path to victory is a list of states that you can win that add up to 270 or more electoral votes. This is where the concept of battleground states comes in. Harris is all but certain to win a list of states including California (54), New York (28), and Washington (12). Trump is all but certain to win another list of states including Tennessee (11), Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), and Louisiana (8).
Once these sure-thing and likely states are added up, Harris has 215 electoral votes and Trump has 219. Both candidates fall short of 270 votes at this stage. This brings us to the true battleground states (or “toss-ups”) of Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10), and a portion of Nebraska (1), which divides votes by congressional districts.
Trump's path to victory is straightforward. He needs to win all of the states he won in 2020. That seems highly likely as of now although the race is close in North Carolina according to RealClearPolitics. He also needs to flip Arizona and Georgia to his column. He lost both in 2020 but is ahead in both as of now according to RealClearPolitics, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and The New York Times. With Arizona and Georgia in hand, Trump only needs to win Pennsylvania to cross the 270-vote threshold. He could lose Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada and still win the White House if he takes Pennsylvania.
The path for Kamala Harris is more challenging but still feasible. She begins with the Northeast-Mid-Atlantic base of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, D.C., and Virginia. Then she picks up the liberal West Coast states of Washington, Oregon, California, and Nevada, with Colorado, New Mexico, Hawaii, and one Nebraska district thrown in for good measure. She pushes toward 270 with the Blue Wall states of New York, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
The problem is that all of those states and D.C. combined give her only 257 electoral votes, still 13 short of the target of 270. How does Kamala close that gap? You guessed it. Pennsylvania. If Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes on top of the other states listed, then she is the next president.
It’s clear that Kamala’s path is much narrower than Trump’s. Trump has a few wild cards that could land in his favor including surprise victories in Virginia, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Some combination of those could pad his lead or compensate for a loss in Pennsylvania.
Harris has no margin for error. She’s extremely unlikely to pick up any of the Trump states. She has to hold on to Virginia and Nevada. And she has to win the entire Blue Wall including Pennsylvania. Trump has a bit of wiggle room while Harris has to run the table. And that’s exactly what she’s trying to do.
Harris based her campaign on a version of Biden’s 2020 “basement strategy”: Stay hidden, don’t take questions, cater to rich donors, don’t be specific and just try to run out the clock with joy and good vibes. But it’s not working. Voters want answers to their everyday problems of inflation, crime, illegal immigrants taking jobs, and new wars breaking out. Harris doesn’t have any. This could be her undoing.
Trump continues to focus on the key issues (inflation, immigration, crime, jobs) now aided by J.D. Vance’s successful debut to a national audience in the VP debate. Voters are far more interested in those issues than in name-calling and other distractions.
Trump has a clear path to victory and is gaining in the polls. He simply needs to maintain message discipline, ignore sideshows, and keep up with his rally schedule and paid advertising to win this election.
Even if Trump can win the election with 270 or more Electoral College votes, likely as of now, the fight will not be over. The Democrats have another lawfare trick up their sleeves.
If Democrats retake the House of Representatives, then on Jan. 6, 2025, the New Democrat-controlled House could pass a resolution that Trump is an “insurrectionist” and disqualify his electoral votes under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
Kamala would not have 270 electoral votes needed to win. This would throw the election of the president to the House of Representatives voting as state delegations, not as individuals. Under the XII Amendment (1804), only Kamala Harris could receive votes for president assuming Trump was disqualified and no other candidate won any electors at all.
J.D. Vance would suffer no insurrectionist disqualification. So the result could be Kamala Harris as president and J.D. Vance as vice president (similar to Jefferson and Burr in 1800).
Another possibility is that the Republican-controlled state delegations in the House could boycott the presidential vote in which case a quorum would be lacking. In that case, the vice president (J.D. Vance) “shall act as president” under the XII Amendment. This is not a far-fetched scenario. Democrats led by Jamie Raskin have already set the wheels in motion.
Trump has 28 days to flip the narrative on Kamala Harris and win the election. If he does, the Democrats have a doomsday plan they will unveil on Jan. 6, 2025, to disqualify Trump.
Bottom Line
The bottom line is that even when this election is over it won’t be over. What are your thoughts on this? Share this article with your friends and sign up for the Daily Briefing which is everyday at 6pm.
Is This What Democrats Plan to Do If Trump Wins?
Election Headed for Photo Finish
It's unbelievable, but the election is now less than a month away. The current state of the race is a topic worth discussing. Polls are a key tool in analyzing and predicting elections, despite their many flaws. They provide a snapshot of the current state of the race, but they don't necessarily predict the final outcome.
A recent analysis of polling methodology revealed several flaws, including polling "registered voters" instead of "likely voters" and using sample sizes that are too small. Also, skewing samples to include too many Democrats and Black voters can produce results favoring Democrats. There are ways to adjust for these flaws, but they're not perfect. The simplest way is to assume that Trump is doing one to two points better than published results once the skews and error margins are removed.
This is good news for Trump, but it still indicates an incredibly tight race. The latest results from the RealClearPolitics poll of polls average show the following:
National: Harris +2.1
Georgia: Trump +1.5
North Carolina: Trump +0.6
Pennsylvania: Tied
Arizona: Trump +1.4
Wisconsin: Harris +0.8
Michigan: Harris +0.7
Nevada: Harris +1.1
There are a few other states that are not generally regarded as battleground states but are close enough that they could offer some surprises on Election Day. These include Virginia (Harris +6.4), Minnesota (Harris +4.7), and New Hampshire (Harris +7.4). If Trump were to score an upset victory in any of these three states, it could partly compensate for the loss of one or more of the battlegrounds.
The Race to 270
Political analysts often talk about the "path to victory", which is defined as achieving 270 or more electoral votes. There are a total of 538 electoral votes available from the 50 states and D.C. A tally of 270 electoral votes is a bare majority of the total and that’s enough to win the White House.
For each candidate, the path to victory is a list of states that you can win that add up to 270 or more electoral votes. This is where the concept of battleground states comes in. Harris is all but certain to win a list of states including California (54), New York (28), and Washington (12). Trump is all but certain to win another list of states including Tennessee (11), Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), and Louisiana (8).
Once these sure-thing and likely states are added up, Harris has 215 electoral votes and Trump has 219. Both candidates fall short of 270 votes at this stage. This brings us to the true battleground states (or “toss-ups”) of Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10), and a portion of Nebraska (1), which divides votes by congressional districts.
Trump's path to victory is straightforward. He needs to win all of the states he won in 2020. That seems highly likely as of now although the race is close in North Carolina according to RealClearPolitics. He also needs to flip Arizona and Georgia to his column. He lost both in 2020 but is ahead in both as of now according to RealClearPolitics, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and The New York Times. With Arizona and Georgia in hand, Trump only needs to win Pennsylvania to cross the 270-vote threshold. He could lose Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada and still win the White House if he takes Pennsylvania.
The path for Kamala Harris is more challenging but still feasible. She begins with the Northeast-Mid-Atlantic base of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, D.C., and Virginia. Then she picks up the liberal West Coast states of Washington, Oregon, California, and Nevada, with Colorado, New Mexico, Hawaii, and one Nebraska district thrown in for good measure. She pushes toward 270 with the Blue Wall states of New York, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
The problem is that all of those states and D.C. combined give her only 257 electoral votes, still 13 short of the target of 270. How does Kamala close that gap? You guessed it. Pennsylvania. If Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes on top of the other states listed, then she is the next president.
It’s clear that Kamala’s path is much narrower than Trump’s. Trump has a few wild cards that could land in his favor including surprise victories in Virginia, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Some combination of those could pad his lead or compensate for a loss in Pennsylvania.
Harris has no margin for error. She’s extremely unlikely to pick up any of the Trump states. She has to hold on to Virginia and Nevada. And she has to win the entire Blue Wall including Pennsylvania. Trump has a bit of wiggle room while Harris has to run the table. And that’s exactly what she’s trying to do.
Harris based her campaign on a version of Biden’s 2020 “basement strategy”: Stay hidden, don’t take questions, cater to rich donors, don’t be specific and just try to run out the clock with joy and good vibes. But it’s not working. Voters want answers to their everyday problems of inflation, crime, illegal immigrants taking jobs, and new wars breaking out. Harris doesn’t have any. This could be her undoing.
Trump continues to focus on the key issues (inflation, immigration, crime, jobs) now aided by J.D. Vance’s successful debut to a national audience in the VP debate. Voters are far more interested in those issues than in name-calling and other distractions.
Trump has a clear path to victory and is gaining in the polls. He simply needs to maintain message discipline, ignore sideshows, and keep up with his rally schedule and paid advertising to win this election.
Even if Trump can win the election with 270 or more Electoral College votes, likely as of now, the fight will not be over. The Democrats have another lawfare trick up their sleeves.
If Democrats retake the House of Representatives, then on Jan. 6, 2025, the New Democrat-controlled House could pass a resolution that Trump is an “insurrectionist” and disqualify his electoral votes under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
Kamala would not have 270 electoral votes needed to win. This would throw the election of the president to the House of Representatives voting as state delegations, not as individuals. Under the XII Amendment (1804), only Kamala Harris could receive votes for president assuming Trump was disqualified and no other candidate won any electors at all.
J.D. Vance would suffer no insurrectionist disqualification. So the result could be Kamala Harris as president and J.D. Vance as vice president (similar to Jefferson and Burr in 1800).
Another possibility is that the Republican-controlled state delegations in the House could boycott the presidential vote in which case a quorum would be lacking. In that case, the vice president (J.D. Vance) “shall act as president” under the XII Amendment. This is not a far-fetched scenario. Democrats led by Jamie Raskin have already set the wheels in motion.
Trump has 28 days to flip the narrative on Kamala Harris and win the election. If he does, the Democrats have a doomsday plan they will unveil on Jan. 6, 2025, to disqualify Trump.
Bottom Line
The bottom line is that even when this election is over it won’t be over. What are your thoughts on this? Share this article with your friends and sign up for the Daily Briefing which is everyday at 6pm.
