Early Voting Turnout in Nevada Shows GOP Dominance
Alarm bells are ringing for Democrats in the 2024 elections, particularly for Kamala Harris in the battleground state of Nevada. Early voting results indicate that GOP voters are outnumbering Democrats, a surprising development considering Democrats usually lead in early votes across the country. This shift is particularly notable in Nevada, where the trend has been consistent until now. Jon Ralston, a seasoned Nevada political reporter, noted the unusual trend in a recent blog post.
Early Voting Statistics
On the first day of early voting in Clark County, NV, an impressive 22,000 in-person voters cast their ballots. Although Democrats lead statewide mail-in voting by 17,298, Republicans lead in-person voting by a significant 25,173. This includes leading in Clark County and Washoe County, the homes of Las Vegas and Reno. Overall, Republicans account for 52% of in-person early voting, while Democrats make up just 28%, and other voters constitute 20%. Ralston described these in-person numbers as "startling" and suggested that if this trend continues, Democratic concerns could escalate dramatically.
Urban and Rural Voting Patterns
American politics often sees a stark difference between urban and rural voting patterns, with cities typically delivering large volumes of Democratic votes. In Nevada, this dynamic is even more pronounced, with Democrats' statewide success largely relying on the so-called "Clark firewall." However, in 2024, this firewall appears to be considerably diminished. Ralston noted that "The Clark firewall is only 6,500, about a seventh of what it was in 2020."
Implications for the Democrats
The overall picture looks grim for the Democrats. Ralston observed that the Republican voter-turnout lead in rural Nevada is more than double the Democrat lead in urban Nevada. This shift led him to coin the term "GOP rural firewall," suggesting a new dynamic in the 2024 cycle. The increased number of Republicans voting early and by mail could also impact what we see on Election Day. Ralston warned that if this trend continues, Kamala Harris would need to win independent voters by nearly double digits to maintain a competitive stance.
Senate Race in Nevada
In addition to the presidential race, there's a Senate race in Nevada this year. Republican Sam Brown is challenging incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen. The Cook Political Report rates the race as "Lean D," while Polymarket bettors collectively give Democrat Rosen an 80% chance of winning. This is a significant difference from the presidential race, where Polymarket gives Trump a 65% chance of securing the state's six electoral votes.
Historical Precedent
No Republican presidential candidate has won Nevada since George W. Bush's victory over John Kerry in 2004. However, the current early voting trends suggest that this decades-long losing streak could be coming to an end.
Bottom Line
The early voting turnout in Nevada is indeed surprising, with GOP voters outnumbering Democrats, a shift from the usual trend. This development could have significant implications for the 2024 elections, particularly for Kamala Harris. However, it's crucial to remember that we're only a few days into the early voting period, and the results could still shift. What are your thoughts on these developments? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.
