Egypt Issues 'Do Not Fly' Alert Over Iran During Specific Night Hours

Aviation Alert Issued

Egypt recently issued a surprisingly specific Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) alert, advising all its airlines to steer clear of Iranian airspace for a three-hour period on Thursday, during the late-night and early morning hours. The United Kingdom, among other countries, has also issued similar 'do not fly' alerts.

The notice states, "All Egyptian carriers shall avoid overflying Tehran. No flight plan will be accepted overflying such territory," with the instructions being applicable from 01:00 to 04:00GMT (or 9pm to 12am US Eastern). This has led to speculation that a significant Iranian retaliation might be imminent.

NOTAMS and Their Importance

NOTAMS are alerts issued to aircraft pilots about potential hazards along flight paths and are internationally recognized by aviation authorities. Reuters also reported on the NOTAM, citing Egyptian government sources who said that Iranian authorities had advised airlines to avoid Iranian airspace due to "military exercises" taking place overnight.

Impact on Airlines

Several airlines are adjusting their schedules to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace and are also cancelling flights to Israel and Lebanon due to fears of a potential wider conflict following the killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah. OPSGROUP, a flight risk monitor, told the same publication that "Such a NOTAM from Egypt is very unusual." The aviation industry group further explained, "It is possible that this is an indicator of an Iranian response to Israel, and in turn a potentially large set of air space disruptions - at the same time, there may be another reason."

Emergency Meeting Called

On Wednesday, Iran convened an emergency meeting of the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which took place in the Saudi city of Jeddah. An OIC statement said the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil on July 31st could ignite a wider war. "This heinous act serves only to escalate the existing tensions potentially leading to a wider conflict that could involve the entire region," the OIC chair said.

Potential Iranian Response

With the anticipation of a major Iranian response against Israel growing over several days, the announcement of the Islamic Cooperation council meeting earlier in the week was seen by most analysts as a sign that ballistic missiles wouldn't be launched at least until the meeting. However, now that the meeting has concluded, there is speculation that the retaliation could happen tonight.

Bottom Line

These are undoubtedly tense times in the region, with the issuance of the NOTAM adding to the uncertainty. The potential for escalation and the impact on aviation and broader geopolitics cannot be underestimated. What are your thoughts on this development? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which takes place every day at 6pm.