EU Defense Commissioner Warns: "China is Observing"
The incoming defense commissioner for the European Union, Andrius Kubilius, has expressed concern that China perceives the U.S. and EU responses to Russian aggression in Ukraine as weak. He believes that such perceived weakness could invite further aggression from other rogue nations, including China, Iran, and North Korea.
China's Perception of Western Weakness
Kubilius has warned that China is closely observing the global situation as conflicts escalate and strain the defense budgets of the U.S. and its partners. He believes that China views the West's response to Russia's actions in Ukraine as weak, despite Western economies being 25 times larger than Russia's. According to Kubilius, the problem lies in a lack of political will and an aversion to risk.
The Dangers of Risk Aversion
Democracies are generally more risk-averse than autocracies when it comes to war. This is understandable, as democracies value human life more than dictators and terrorists do. However, this risk aversion could be strategically detrimental if modern warfare is indeed a "wood chipper" for attacking armies, as U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin suggested in 2022.
The Threat of Dictatorial Ambitions
According to reports, dictators in the "axis of evil" are prepared to sacrifice tens of millions of lives to achieve their territorial and ideological ambitions. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has already resulted in approximately one million deaths. Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened nuclear strikes that could lead to a direct war with the United States.
Iran's Strategy and the Depletion of Ammunition
Iran is also seen as a threat, with its pursuit of nuclear weapons and support for terrorist proxies against Israel. The U.S. and its allies are running low on ammunition reserves due to these conflicts. As a result, Taiwan is reportedly seeking new sources of ammunition to defend itself against the People's Liberation Army.
China's Role in Global Conflicts
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is believed to be encouraging these conflicts by supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine and allying with Iran in its negotiations with the U.S. The CCP also reportedly bankrolls all the "axis of evil" countries through energy purchases and trade. This strategy is seen as a way to distract democracies, deplete their arsenals, and make it more difficult to defend Taiwan.
Preparing for a Possible War with Taiwan
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has instructed the People's Liberation Army to prepare for a potential war with Taiwan in 2027. In response, the U.S. Navy has also been told to prepare for a possible conflict with China by the same year. The FBI continues to uncover evidence of Beijing's preparations for large-scale cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure, which could disable the U.S. during a war with Taiwan.
The Need for Strength and Courage
Kubilius believes that the perceived weakness of the U.S. and Europe is a significant issue. He argues that the way the West responds to Ukraine's situation could influence whether China decides to wage war against Taiwan in 2027. Kubilius advocates for a massive increase in defense spending and for each EU country to stockpile enough ammunition for a potential war with Russia.
Increasing Defense Spending
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also believes that the EU must significantly increase its defense spending to deter a war with Russia. She estimates that the EU needs to spend around $560 billion to compensate for past low defense spending.
The Bottom Line
The Chinese regime is closely watching as Ukraine and Israel struggle to counter dictatorial and terrorist aggressions. Calls for moderation from the U.S. may seem weak to China. To maintain peace, the West must respond to these aggressions with strength and courage rather than fear and weakness. What are your thoughts on this issue? Do you agree with Kubilius' assessment? Share this article with your friends and let us know your views. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6 pm.
