Harris Campaign Reduces North Carolina Ad Spend as Democratic Turnout Dips
With less than a week until the US election, the Kamala Harris campaign has significantly reduced its planned advertising in North Carolina. This decision comes amidst increasing Republican turnout and decreasing Democratic turnout in early voting in the state, leading many to speculate that the Harris campaign is conceding defeat in North Carolina.
Ad Spend Reduction
AdImpact, a political intelligence firm, reported that the Harris-Walz campaign initially reserved $2.7 million worth of ads in North Carolina for the final stretch of the campaign. However, they subsequently cancelled over $2 million in ad reservations. Despite this, Harris is still scheduled to hold a rally in Raleigh, while Trump has an event in Rocky Mount. Nonetheless, the Harris campaign's hopes of securing North Carolina's 16 electoral votes seem to be dwindling as early voting numbers continue to indicate a challenging path to victory in the state.
Early Voting Patterns
The contrast in early voting patterns between 2020 and 2024 is stark. Compared to the same period four years ago, North Carolina Democrats have cast 341,000 fewer votes, while Republicans have cast 9,000 more, according to Andy Jackson of the Raleigh-based John Locke Foundation. Furthermore, North Carolina is experiencing lower turnout among two traditional Democratic voter groups: young people and black voters. In 2020, 92% of the state's black voters supported Biden, but nationwide, black support for Trump is on the rise.
Analyst Predictions
Earlier this month, political analyst Mark Halperin told Tucker Carlson that despite the Harris campaign's optimism about North Carolina, reliable Republicans informed him that the state was leaning towards Trump. Last week, an unnamed Harris campaign official admitted to NBC News that the outlook in North Carolina was becoming increasingly bleak. The campaign had hoped that a combination of wins in North Carolina and Nevada could offset a potential Trump victory in Pennsylvania. However, North Carolina now seems increasingly out of reach, and early voting turnout patterns in Nevada are also causing concern for Democrats.
Electoral Calculations
If Trump wins North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, he would only need an additional eight electoral votes from the remaining four swing states to reach the required 270 for victory. Despite the worrying early voting numbers for Democrats, opinion polls still suggest a close race in North Carolina. The most recent AtlasIntel poll shows Harris leading by 49% to 48%, while the latest Trafalgar survey shows Trump ahead by 49% to 46%. In 2020, Trump won North Carolina, defeating Joe Biden by 49.9% to 48.6%.
Impact of Hurricane Helene
Before early voting began, there were concerns that Republican turnout in western North Carolina could be affected by the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene. However, election expert Jackson noted that turnout in the 13 counties most affected by the hurricane is slightly higher than in the rest of the state. A new Elon University poll found that only 24% of North Carolina Republicans believe that state and federal agencies are doing a "very good" or "good" job handling recovery efforts, compared to 68% of Democrats, who are less likely to live in the affected area.
Bottom Line
As the Harris campaign grapples with these challenges in the final days before the election, it remains to be seen what the next development will be. What are your thoughts on this situation? Do you think the campaign's decision to cut ad spend in North Carolina is a sign of conceding defeat? Share this article with your friends and discuss. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
Harris Campaign Reduces North Carolina Ad Spend as Democratic Turnout Dips
With less than a week until the US election, the Kamala Harris campaign has significantly reduced its planned advertising in North Carolina. This decision comes amidst increasing Republican turnout and decreasing Democratic turnout in early voting in the state, leading many to speculate that the Harris campaign is conceding defeat in North Carolina.
