Implications of the Ongoing Houthi Aggression in the Southern Red Sea
The West could face severe consequences if the Houthi aggression, backed by Iran, in the southern Red Sea continues. The immediate threat is inflation due to shipping disruptions and increased container rates as merchant ships are rerouted around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. However, the long-term implications are even more concerning: the rapid erosion of America's "credibility and deterrence." This perceived weakness could encourage China to escalate disputes in the South China Sea, as they observe the West becoming increasingly embroiled in multiple conflicts, including those in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Impact of the Houthi Rebel Missile Attack
Erik Prince, the founder of Blackwater and a former Navy Seal, recently commented on the Houthi rebel missile attack on the Greek-flagged oil tanker MV Sounion. This attack, which occurred about 77 nautical miles west of the Yemeni port of Hodeidah, led to a massive explosion and a potential environmental disaster.
Prince questioned the lack of outrage from environmentalists, pointing out that thousands of tons of crude oil will now pour into the Red Sea. To provide some context, the Sounion was carrying 150,000 tons of crude, which is more than four times the amount spilled by the Exxon Valdez in 1989.
Shipping Disruptions and Increased Costs
In the ten months since Houthi forces in Yemen began disrupting maritime traffic in the Red Sea, global shipping companies have been forced to reroute merchant ships around the Cape of Good Hope. This has led to delays and higher container costs, a situation that is likely to worsen as capacity becomes increasingly strained.
Despite numerous military operations by the US and EU aimed at ensuring freedom of navigation and maritime security in this contested region, they have repeatedly failed. Prince described this as a clear sign of the collapse of American credibility and deterrence. He argued that allowing the Iranian proxy Houthis to shut off a major maritime seaway is a significant failure and called for better leadership.
Perceived Weakness and Potential Consequences
The failure of the Biden-Harris administration's freedom of navigation military operation in the Red Sea is significant because it projects extreme weakness for the world's top superpower. This weakness is evident as the US is embroiled in conflicts in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Red Sea. This perceived vulnerability could accelerate the possibility of a major US-China confrontation in the South China Sea.
Recent months have seen a focus on the increasing risks of WW3 in the South China Sea, particularly clashes between Chinese and Filipino ships. With the US obligated to defend the Philippines if China attacks the Filipino military, Beijing may interpret the West's involvement in multiple conflicts as a sign of significant weakness. As a result, the chances of an armed conflict in the South China Sea are increasing.
Bottom Line
The ongoing Houthi aggression in the southern Red Sea has far-reaching implications, from immediate inflation threats due to shipping disruptions to the potential erosion of America's credibility and deterrence. The perceived weakness of the West, as it becomes increasingly entangled in multiple conflicts, could potentially escalate disputes in the South China Sea.
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