Insights from China's "Joint Sword-2024B" Military Drill
Beijing's Recent Military Drills Around Taiwan
Over 125 aircraft and 34 coast guard and naval units were involved in Beijing's recent military drills around Taiwan, providing an insight into Xi Jinping’s plans to force the island’s reunification with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The operation was designed to intimidate Taipei and its potential supporters by demonstrating Beijing's ability and determination to isolate the democratically governed island from any external support or assistance. The operation also suggested that Xi plans to portray the initial phase of a violent reunification effort as being justified under international law.
The Role of the People’s Armed Police Coast Guard
The People’s Armed Police Coast Guard’s (PAPCG) involvement in the operation suggests that China may initiate a maritime exclusion or quarantine zone around Taiwan. Coast Guard cutters not only circumnavigated the main island of Taiwan, but also patrolled the waters off Taiwan’s islands near China's shores. This is not the first time the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command has included PAPCG and Maritime Security Agency (MSA) patrol craft in its exercises opposite Taiwan.
Significance of PRC Maritime Law Enforcement Units
The increasing involvement of PRC maritime law enforcement units is significant. Beijing may be considering a maritime law enforcement operation to isolate Taiwan from external support. However, it will not declare a blockade, as that is an act of war typically employed against a hostile sovereign state, a status Beijing denies Taipei. Instead, Beijing argues that Taiwan is a renegade province, making all of its islands, air space, and waters sovereign PRC territory in “rebel” hands.
Beijing's Argument Under International Law
Beijing claims that Taiwan’s status gives China the right under international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to control access to that territory and regulate commerce and resources within Taipei’s economic exclusion zone. Accordingly, Beijing can argue that any maritime quarantine it declares against Taiwan constitutes a reasonable domestic law enforcement operation authorized under international law.
China’s PAPCG and Maritime Safety Administration's Units
China’s PAPCG is the world’s largest coast guard, and the waters around Taiwan off-China’s shore islands will be reinforced by the PRC’s Maritime Safety Administration’s units. The PAPCG will be backed by the responsible PLA Theater Command. The PLA Navy and Air Force will maintain patrols, presence, and readiness to respond to any challenges beyond the PAPCG’s capabilities.
Beijing’s “Three Warfares” Doctrine
Beijing’s “Three Warfares” doctrine integrates media, public opinion, and legal activities to shape the legal and political environment in its favor. The PRC often presents a positive legal façade to divide its opposition and hide its true intentions. Exposing what’s behind the façade is critical to deterring Xi’s aggressive plans.
Bottom Line
The 13-hour-long Joint Sword-2024B may not have been as large or complex as China’s earlier intimidation exercises against Taiwan, but it does reveal Beijing’s aggressive intentions and provides some potential insights into how it intends to achieve them. The PRC employs a more adroitly crafted narrative and operates with greater care and subtlety than America’s traditional enemies. It will present its acts as legitimate and lawful actions necessary to end a rebellion on its territory. All of its military operations have a political narrative and purpose behind them. The greatest challenge the United States and its allies face may be in deterring Xi’s destabilizing designs in the Western Pacific. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do share this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing which is everyday at 6pm.
