Israeli Officials Discuss War Strategy Against Iran
Senior ministers and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel convened on Thursday to formulate a war strategy in retaliation against Iran, as reported by the New York Times. This strategy is a response to Iran's attack on Israel last week, which involved up to 200 ballistic and hypersonic missiles. The escalating conflict could potentially lead to a broader conflict across the Middle East.
Israeli officials have warned that their retaliation for last week's missile barrage will be more severe. President Biden spoke with Netanyahu about Israel's planned retaliation strike against Iran, their first conversation in months.
President Biden was asked by reporters outside the White House if he would support Israel striking Iran's critical oil export facilities. In response, the president said, "We're discussing that."
Prime Minister Netanyahu's Statement to the United Nations General Assembly
On Sept. 27, Netanyahu addressed the United Nations General Assembly. He stated, "The curse of Oct. 7 began when Hamas invaded Israel from Gaza, but it didn't end there. Israel was soon forced to defend itself on six more war fronts organized by Iran."
The most likely high-value assets that IDF jets could hit first would be Iran's ability to export crude and crude energy products. This has been detailed in multiple notes.
David Asher's Perspective on a Potential IDF Strike on Iran
David Asher, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former US State Department official, provided insight on what a potential IDF strike on Iran might look like. Asher has worked on counter-terrorism operations in the Middle East.
In an op-ed in the WSJ titled "A Strategy for Striking Back at Iran," Asher suggested that the strategy Israel successfully implemented against Hezbollah should now be applied against Tehran directly. He pointed out that the regime is the puppeteer behind the Oct. 7 and the multifront attacks against Israel.
Asher's Proposed Course of Action for Israel
Asher proposed that Israel's most effective course of action would be to target key leadership, military support, and financial infrastructure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Intelligence and Security Ministry. This would weaken the regime's pillars while avoiding direct harm to civilians.
Israel should first neutralize the immediate missile threat posed by the regime. Striking Iran's leadership and nuclear facilities without simultaneously addressing Iran's offensive missile capabilities would allow the regime to retaliate aggressively.
Next, Israel must attack the regime's headquarters, command facilities, and military. No key Iranian leaders should be spared. Iran's military training camps on the Iraq border should then be targeted. These camps have been used to train Iranian, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi special-group operatives for campaigns against Israel, U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, and global anti-terrorist operations. Finally, Iran's central bank and oil export facilities should be destroyed.
Asher's Role in Counter-Terrorism Operations Against ISIS
Asher played a critical role in counter-terrorism operations against ISIS's central bank and cash distribution centers across Mosul, Iraq, in 2015-16. He suggested that the combination of kinetic warfare and economic warfare could be a winning strategy for Israel to dismantle Tehran's financial apparatus.
Asher's Call for American Support
Asher called for direct and public support from the U.S. for Israel's counterstrikes. He reminded Americans of the large number of their compatriots who have been murdered by Iran and its terrorist action network since the 1980s.
Potential Impact on Energy Markets
Brent crude prices would surge if IDF fighter jets neutralized Iran's oil-export capacity. Iran's crude export loadings remained well below normal levels on Oct. 10 as oil markets continued to brace for an expected retaliatory strike by Israel on Iran.
Goldman analyst Lindsay Matcham noted last month that a war risk premium in Brent crude prices was absent. If IDF forces target Iranian energy assets, especially knocking out Tehran's ability to export crude to buyers in Singapore and China, then Brent prices would instantly reprice much higher.
The question remains whether Israel will strike Iran before or after the US presidential election.
Bottom Line
The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran could potentially lead to a broader conflict across the Middle East. The strategies proposed by David Asher could be effective in dismantling Tehran's financial apparatus. However, these actions could also lead to a surge in Brent crude prices. The timing of Israel's potential strike on Iran remains uncertain. What are your thoughts on this matter? Share this article with your friends and sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is every day at 6pm.
Israeli Officials Discuss War Strategy Against Iran
Senior ministers and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel convened on Thursday to formulate a war strategy in retaliation against Iran, as reported by the New York Times. This strategy is a response to Iran's attack on Israel last week, which involved up to 200 ballistic and hypersonic missiles. The escalating conflict could potentially lead to a broader conflict across the Middle East.
Israeli officials have warned that their retaliation for last week's missile barrage will be more severe. President Biden spoke with Netanyahu about Israel's planned retaliation strike against Iran, their first conversation in months.
President Biden was asked by reporters outside the White House if he would support Israel striking Iran's critical oil export facilities. In response, the president said, "We're discussing that."
Prime Minister Netanyahu's Statement to the United Nations General Assembly
On Sept. 27, Netanyahu addressed the United Nations General Assembly. He stated, "The curse of Oct. 7 began when Hamas invaded Israel from Gaza, but it didn't end there. Israel was soon forced to defend itself on six more war fronts organized by Iran."
The most likely high-value assets that IDF jets could hit first would be Iran's ability to export crude and crude energy products. This has been detailed in multiple notes.
David Asher's Perspective on a Potential IDF Strike on Iran
David Asher, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former US State Department official, provided insight on what a potential IDF strike on Iran might look like. Asher has worked on counter-terrorism operations in the Middle East.
In an op-ed in the WSJ titled "A Strategy for Striking Back at Iran," Asher suggested that the strategy Israel successfully implemented against Hezbollah should now be applied against Tehran directly. He pointed out that the regime is the puppeteer behind the Oct. 7 and the multifront attacks against Israel.
Asher's Proposed Course of Action for Israel
Asher proposed that Israel's most effective course of action would be to target key leadership, military support, and financial infrastructure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Intelligence and Security Ministry. This would weaken the regime's pillars while avoiding direct harm to civilians.
Israel should first neutralize the immediate missile threat posed by the regime. Striking Iran's leadership and nuclear facilities without simultaneously addressing Iran's offensive missile capabilities would allow the regime to retaliate aggressively.
Next, Israel must attack the regime's headquarters, command facilities, and military. No key Iranian leaders should be spared. Iran's military training camps on the Iraq border should then be targeted. These camps have been used to train Iranian, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi special-group operatives for campaigns against Israel, U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, and global anti-terrorist operations. Finally, Iran's central bank and oil export facilities should be destroyed.
Asher's Role in Counter-Terrorism Operations Against ISIS
Asher played a critical role in counter-terrorism operations against ISIS's central bank and cash distribution centers across Mosul, Iraq, in 2015-16. He suggested that the combination of kinetic warfare and economic warfare could be a winning strategy for Israel to dismantle Tehran's financial apparatus.
Asher's Call for American Support
Asher called for direct and public support from the U.S. for Israel's counterstrikes. He reminded Americans of the large number of their compatriots who have been murdered by Iran and its terrorist action network since the 1980s.
Potential Impact on Energy Markets
Brent crude prices would surge if IDF fighter jets neutralized Iran's oil-export capacity. Iran's crude export loadings remained well below normal levels on Oct. 10 as oil markets continued to brace for an expected retaliatory strike by Israel on Iran.
Goldman analyst Lindsay Matcham noted last month that a war risk premium in Brent crude prices was absent. If IDF forces target Iranian energy assets, especially knocking out Tehran's ability to export crude to buyers in Singapore and China, then Brent prices would instantly reprice much higher.
The question remains whether Israel will strike Iran before or after the US presidential election.
Bottom Line
The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran could potentially lead to a broader conflict across the Middle East. The strategies proposed by David Asher could be effective in dismantling Tehran's financial apparatus. However, these actions could also lead to a surge in Brent crude prices. The timing of Israel's potential strike on Iran remains uncertain. What are your thoughts on this matter? Share this article with your friends and sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is every day at 6pm.
