Israel's Retaliatory Strike on Iran Delayed Following US Intel Leak
Iran's Attack on Israel and the Promised Retaliation
It's been over three weeks since Iran launched a significant ballistic missile attack on Israel, involving up to 200 projectiles, including alleged hypersonic missiles. The anticipated Israeli 'retaliation' strike, initially expected to occur by the end of October, is yet to take place. Israeli officials have suggested that the strike will happen before the US presidential election.
Israel's military has been signaling the imminent attack, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant assuring pilots and air crews during a visit to an air force base that "after we strike in Iran, everyone will understand what you did in the preparation and training process."
US Intel Leak Delays Israel's Retaliatory Strike
A recent report in Britain’s The Times newspaper alleges that the planned retaliatory attack was further delayed when US intelligence on Israel's preparations was leaked and made public. The leak has raised concerns in Israel that Iran could predict certain patterns of attack. As a result, Israel has been forced to develop an alternative plan, which requires detailed war gaming before any order is given.
An intelligence source with knowledge of Israeli deliberations said, "The leak of the American documents delayed the attack due to the need to change certain strategies and components." The source confirmed that there would be a retaliation, but it has taken longer than initially planned.
Details of the Leaked Documents
The leaked documents, marked top secret, first appeared online and were later verified by an Axios report. Authored by the Department of Defense National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and the NSA, the documents tracked the movements of heavy Israeli munitions from US spy satellites. They referred to Golden Horizon and Rocks, two Israeli air-launched ballistic missiles, raising concerns over Iranians potentially recognizing 'patterns' on weapons movements based on the leak.
Impact of the Leak on US-Israel Intelligence Sharing
Officials have termed this as the most severe intelligence breach in years, which could potentially harm the US-Israel intelligence sharing relationship. Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and a retired CIA officer, stated to CNN that "the future coordination between the US and Israel could be challenged as well. Trust is a key component in the relationship, and depending on how this was leaked that trust could be eroded."
Internal investigations are exploring the possibility that the leak originated from a "Five Eyes" partner - the intelligence alliance composed of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Reports suggest that the FBI and DoD believe the leak most likely came through an individual with clearance, and not a cyber intrusion or foreign hack. Given that at least one of the documents was printed via a classified printer, it's likely only a matter of time before the leaker is identified.
Bottom Line
This incident highlights the potential risks and consequences of intelligence leaks, not only for the countries directly involved but also for their allies. The delay in Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran due to the US intel leak underscores the importance of maintaining the integrity of sensitive information in the realm of international relations and security. What are your thoughts on this matter? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
