Key Races That Could Determine House Control
The national attention is currently focused on the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. However, the control of Congress will be equally significant. At present, Republicans hold a slim majority of eight seats in the House, allowing them to spare only three defections on significant votes. On the other hand, Democrats, with four independents, hold a one-seat majority in the Senate and the tie-breaking vote.
While Republicans are favored to reclaim the Senate, the fate of the House remains more uncertain. The president will need full control of Congress to accomplish much during their term. House Republicans aim to expand their thin, ideologically divided majority, and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has expressed his intention to seek re-election as speaker. Meanwhile, Democrats are striving to reclaim the majority, which they controlled from 2019 to 2023, and to place House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) in the speaker’s chair.
Out of the 435 House races, around two dozen are expected to ultimately determine the control of the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. Each of these races is rated by the Cook Political Report as a “toss-up,” making them among the hardest to predict.
New York's Role
Republican control of the House is largely due to the party’s victories in New York in 2022, when several Republicans won districts that had voted for candidate Joe Biden just two years prior. While the expected red wave didn’t fully materialize nationwide, there was a notable Republican surge in New York.
The most surprising win was Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-N.Y.) defeat of incumbent Rep. Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), the then-chair of the Democrats’ House campaign arm. Lawler, whose district lies just north of New York City, won by a 0.6 percent margin in an upset that shocked even bullish Republicans.
This year, Lawler is leading his Democratic opponent, Mondaire Jones, by just one point, an Oct. 3 Emerson College poll shows. Meanwhile, Reps. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) and Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.)—both of whom represent Biden-voting districts—are also seeking to hold onto their closely contested seats. Molinaro won by just around a 1.6 percent margin, while D’Esposito enjoyed a more comfortable 3.6 percent.
California's Influence
California was equally important to Republicans’ narrow reclamation of the House in 2022, where Republicans also made gains in districts outside of the blue strongholds that dot the state’s coast. Now, several GOP incumbents face tight reelection battles to hold on to those districts.
Five California Republicans—Reps. John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Ken Calvert, and Michelle Steel—are in extremely close races. All but one of these districts voted for Biden in 2020, highlighting their competitive nature. Holding these seats is vital for the Republicans to maintain or grow their House majority in 2024.
Rust Belt's Impact
While Republicans may be on the defensive in blue strongholds like New York and California, Democrats are similarly on the defensive in two of this election’s most crucial states: Michigan and Pennsylvania. At the presidential level, these two states are expected to play a huge role in determining the ultimate victor in the election.
In Michigan, Republicans are vying to flip control of two open seats abandoned by Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Dan Kildee (D-Mich.). Over in Pennsylvania, considered the most consequential swing state this cycle, Reps. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) and Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) are seeking to hold their seats.
Arizona's Contribution
Arizona, another battleground state, is home to some of the most contested races in the 2024 cycle. Two Republican incumbents, Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), face tough reelections in districts that narrowly voted for Biden in 2020. Retaining the districts is crucial for Republicans to grow their House majority, with both expected to be decided by razor-thin margins in 2024.
Bottom Line
The control of Congress is a critical factor that will shape the political landscape of the United States. The outcome of these key races in New York, California, the Rust Belt, and Arizona will play a significant role in determining which party will hold the majority in the House. What are your thoughts on these races? Do you think the Republicans will maintain their majority, or will the Democrats reclaim control? Share this article with your friends and discuss it with them. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.
