Key Pennsylvania County: Erie's Impact on the 2024 Presidential Election

Key Pennsylvania County: Erie's Impact on the 2024 Presidential Election

Key Pennsylvania County Could Determine 2024 Presidential Election

On September 29, thousands of people flocked to the Bayfront Convention Center to listen to a speech from former President Donald Trump. Hundreds more gathered outside the convention center to watch the speech on a jumbo display. Stands were set up nearby to register voters and distribute Trump-Vance yard signs and bumper stickers. The reason for this gathering is Erie County, which includes the city of Erie. This county is a strong predictor of who will win Pennsylvania. Since 1980, with the exception of 1988, the county has supported the winner of statewide presidential races. Although it doesn't always predict the national winner, since 2008, it has consistently backed the candidate who won Pennsylvania. This makes Erie County a key player in the 2024 election, as the winner of Pennsylvania is expected to win the entire election.

Political Shifts in Erie County

In 2008 and 2012, the Democratic Party dominated Erie County. President Barack Obama won the county by 20 points and 16.9 points respectively in his election and reelection bid. However, in 2016, Trump shifted the county by 18.5 points in favor of Republicans, winning the county by 1.6 percent. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the county by a narrow margin of 1 percent, or 1,417 votes. This political shift can be partly attributed to the area's cultural and demographic background. Erie County, located a few hours north of Pittsburgh, borders the Great Lake of the same name, upstate New York, and Ohio. The city of Erie, home to large immigrant and university student populations, is Pennsylvania's fifth most populous. The county also includes several suburban areas and developments, while the southern half is largely rural.

Demographics of Erie County

Erie County's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters mirrors the larger voter distributions in Pennsylvania. The county is home to around 271,000 people, 83 percent of whom are white. With an average household income of around $60,663, many voters fall into the white working class, a key demographic for both parties. This demographic has trended toward Republicans since Trump entered politics. In 2008, about 55 percent of them backed Obama. In 2016, Trump’s first presidential campaign, 62 percent of the white working class voted for him. In 2020, their support dipped to 59 percent. Democrats aim to hold onto their minority share of this demographic, while expanding among suburban, white collar, and Erie city voters. Republicans, on the other hand, are seeking to expand their lead among the white working class and to win over independents.

Republican and Democratic Strategies

Democrats maintain a slight advantage in voter registration in the county, with about 10,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. However, the most crucial bloc for both parties is the county’s 35,000 independents. Republicans are seeing strong signs of enthusiasm in Erie County. Their headquarters in Erie is bustling with activity, with county residents stopping by frequently to request voter registration forms, mail-in ballots, or Trump apparel. Democrats, on the other hand, are focusing on maintaining their substantial lead in the city itself, aided by the city’s vast student and immigrant population. They are also working on shifting suburban areas in their favor.

Bottom Line

As Erie County goes, so goes Pennsylvania, and as Pennsylvania goes, so goes the election. This makes Erie County a key battleground in the 2024 presidential election. With the stakes so high, both parties are working hard to win over voters. What are your thoughts on this? Do you think Erie County will play a decisive role in the 2024 election? Share this article with your friends and discuss. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.

Some articles will contain credit or partial credit to other authors even if we do not repost the article and are only inspired by the original content.

Some articles will contain credit or partial credit to other authors even if we do not repost the article and are only inspired by the original content.