Lab-Grown vs Natural Diamonds: The Decline of Traditional Gems
The Decline of Natural Diamonds
The diamond market is experiencing a dramatic downturn, primarily due to the rise of low-cost lab-grown diamonds. These artificial stones are gaining a larger market share as consumers, particularly those with limited budgets, are increasingly opting for them.
Amy Wu, a former employee of FTX Ventures who recently joined Menlo Ventures, a well-established venture firm in Silicon Valley, is now focusing on the consumer sector as a partner. Wu, in a popular post on X, pointed out that 2023 was a crucial year in the competition between natural diamonds and lab-grown ones.
Market Share Shift to Lab-Grown Diamonds
Based on a survey by trend analytics firm Tenoris, which involved 1,500 US jewelry stores, lab-grown diamonds have taken the lead in 2024, accounting for 56.8% of diamonds sold. Natural diamonds, on the other hand, only made up 43.2% of sales. Wu's post on X was aptly titled "RIP 'real' diamonds."
Morgan Stanley analysts noted in a recent client communication that the trend of lab-grown diamonds gaining market share remains unopposed, further exacerbating the issues faced by the natural diamond market.
Natural Diamond Prices at Record Lows
Data from Bloomberg, referencing the Diamond Standard Index, indicates that prices for natural stones have dropped to their lowest since records began in early 2002. The index has lost 45% of its value since March 2022. Morgan Stanley analysts predict that while market rebalancing may halt the price drop, a significant price increase is unlikely before 2025.
Public Reactions to the Shift
Public reactions to this shift have been mixed. Some users on X have expressed relief, suggesting that money can now be allocated to more practical things, while others, particularly those with family ties to the business, argue that the chart doesn't tell the whole story. They believe lab-grown diamonds are primarily replacing cubic zirconium due to the significant price drop, and the idea that they will replace natural diamonds is unrealistic.
Bottom Line
The diamond industry is undergoing a significant shift, with lab-grown diamonds taking the lead over natural ones. While this may be a positive change for consumers looking for more affordable options, it poses challenges for those involved in the natural diamond market. What are your thoughts on this shift? Do you think lab-grown diamonds will completely replace natural ones in the future? Share your thoughts and this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.