Michigan's Six Key Counties in the 2024 Presidential Election

It's no shock that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, campaigned in Flint, Michigan, on October 4. Similarly, it's not surprising that former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, rallied in Saginaw, less than 40 miles north, on October 3. It's expected that they will continue to campaign across central Michigan repeatedly before Election Day.

The Importance of Six Counties

Both Flint and Saginaw are located within a 100-mile corridor along Interstate 75 between Detroit and Saginaw Bay. The election results from six counties in this area will likely determine who wins Michigan's 15 electoral votes. These votes could potentially cast the decisive tally that determines the next president. The key to winning in Michigan's battleground counties, some of the nation's most fiercely contested constituencies, will be identifying the undiscovered undecided voters. Campaigns know where these voters are located, but not who they are. Both parties' county and district committees are conducting intensive ground games, with teams of canvassers going door-to-door. This reaffirms the saying, "All politics is local," particularly in presidential elections.

Early Voting and the Role of Wayne County

Michiganders have been casting absentee mail-in ballots since September 26. Wayne County Commissioner Jonathan Kinloch, who chairs the Democrats' Congressional District 13 committee, emphasized the importance of voting early. Wayne County, which includes Detroit and Dearborn, is a Democratic stronghold, along with neighboring Oakland County and Genesee County to the north on I-75.

Historical Voting Patterns

Wayne County hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1928, Oakland since 1992, and Genesee, which includes Flint, since 1964. President Joe Biden won these three counties by more than 470,000 votes in 2020, leading to his 155,000-vote victory in Michigan. This was four years after Trump became the first Republican to win the state since 1988.

Republican Strategies

The GOP aims to make inroads into this Democratic stronghold, particularly in Genesee County. Success here could potentially help Trump reclaim the White House, assist former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) in flipping a blue Senate seat to red, and help Republicans win two "toss-up" House races.

Democratic Efforts

Democrats are working hard in these counties to maintain the local victories needed to win statewide elections. They understand the importance of ensuring that their base turns out in large numbers.

The 'Battle of the Bases'

Republicans need to maintain strong support in deep red Livingston County while solidifying their newfound control in Macomb County. Macomb backed Trump twice after voting for Democratic President Barack Obama in previous elections.

The Role of Saginaw County

Only Saginaw County, among the six central Michigan counties, is a "toss-up" between the Trump-led GOP ticket and the Democrat slate led by Harris. Biden won Saginaw County by one-third of a percent in 2020, about 300 votes, after Trump won it in 2016 by 1 percent. This was the first time a Republican won the county since 1984.

Identifying the Undecided Voters

Identifying where the votes are doesn't equate to knowing who the voters are. There are indications of a decline in black support for Democrats nationally. If this trend continues in 2024, it could have a significant impact in the Detroit area.

Ground Game Strategies

Both parties are focusing on areas of traditionally low turnout and are reaching out to "inconsistent voters." Republicans in Saginaw and Oakland counties are venturing into deep blue areas to discuss inflation and find disaffected union members.

Bottom Line

The 2024 Presidential Election in Michigan could be decided by just a handful of counties. The strategies and efforts of both parties in these key areas could make all the difference. What are your thoughts on this? Share this article with your friends and let us know your views. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.