NATO's Potential Response to a Hypothetical Russian Attack on The Baltics

A recent war simulation, as reported by the German newspaper Bild, has examined the potential aftermath of a Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank, specifically the Baltic states.

War Simulation Scenario

The simulation, which delves into the potential consequences of such a conflict, presents a worst-case scenario where NATO’s response could be delayed, leaving Lithuania and its neighbors exposed to a Russian advance. The computer-simulated wargame, which included contributions from former U.S. Army Europe commander Ben Hodges and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Philip Breedlove, imagines an attack occurring in 2027. In this scenario, Russian forces would launch assaults from Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, rapidly moving to occupy parts of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

Strategic Target: The Suwałki Corridor

The primary target of the attack would be the strategically significant Suwałki Corridor, a 100-kilometer stretch of land connecting Kaliningrad to Belarus. This corridor, often referred to as “the most dangerous place on the planet,” could be used to isolate the Baltic states from the rest of NATO. The simulation indicates that NATO’s Article 5 – the alliance’s collective defense clause – could take several days to activate, leading to delays in mobilizing support.

Implications for the Baltic States

As a result, Lithuania and the other Baltic states might have to confront Russian forces alone for up to 10 days before NATO could send significant reinforcements to the region. During this period, NATO’s German brigade stationed in Lithuania, projected to consist of 5,000 troops and 44 Leopard 2 tanks by 2027, would play a pivotal role. In the simulation, German tanks eventually stopped the Russian advance within three days of deployment. General Breedlove explained, “We need to buy as much time as possible. First there will be air support, then the fleet, and then heavy ground troops. It would be necessary to hold positions until the arrival of large NATO forces.”

Damage to Lithuania

Despite successful resistance, the damage to Lithuania would be severe, with the country left partially occupied and devastated by the end of the conflict. Thousands of fatalities on both sides would also be expected in a brutal few days of fighting.

Bottom Line

The simulation paints a grim picture of the potential consequences of a Russian attack on the Baltic states. It underscores the strategic significance of the Suwałki Corridor and the potential challenges NATO could face in mobilizing a rapid response. The hypothetical scenario also highlights the vital role of the German brigade stationed in Lithuania. What are your thoughts on this war simulation and its implications? Feel free to share this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.